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There is an advantage to signaling to your extremist followers that you will shield them from consequences, so they can do their worst with impunity.
That’s how dictatorships work. And there’s an economic advantage to being a dictator.
But he already played that up and left people out to dry in his 2016 campaign
J6 insurrectionists already hoped/expected Trump to issue pardons before he left office
But the same crowd still support him. So he knows already knows he doesn’t have to protect them. He pardoned a bunch of 2016 campaign insiders because they were a liability to him if the decided to turn on him. So I genuinely don’t think he will pardon anybody where there’s not a clear quid pro quo of how it directly benefits him.