But a non Trump candidate wouldn’t fire up the Democratic base either, and steal some of the voters away from Biden at the same time.

There’s many democrats that even today say they didn’t vote for Biden, they voted against Trump and that was who the democrats picked. They might be saying that, but I think even someone like Ron Desantis might have good odds of winning. Basically it’s probably going to be a tight race if the Republicans don’t nominate Trump… And yet Trump’s the most likely nominee right now.