• NoneOfUrBusiness@fedia.io
    4·
    2 months ago

    Have you ever heard of gambler’s ruin? It’s the name of a few different results in statistics, but the one we want is this:

    In statistics, gambler’s ruin is the fact that a gambler playing a game with negative expected value will eventually go bankrupt, regardless of their betting system.

    Now in modern US elections, does your bet have a positive or negative expected value for democracy? Is America becoming more or less of a democracy every election on average? Apply the theorem above to your answer and see what you get.

    • spooky2092@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
      1·
      2 months ago

      Now do not voting/non-participation. Is that increasing democracy? Is it leading to positive outcomes? Does it lead to outcomes that are even marginally better than voting?

      Comparing voting to gambling is asinine, since not gambling has no effect on you, but not voting does not. And whether or not my vote increases democracy, not voting doesn’t increase it either and leads to outcomes like we have now.

      It’s a cute idea, but that’s about it and only really makes sense if you choose not to be pragmatic in the slightest.