Risk of large asteroid striking Earth falls to 1.5% – DW – 02/20/2025
www.dw.com
NASA cuts calculations of asteroid large enough to wipe out a whole city striking Earth in half. The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

Summary

NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.

The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.

The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.

NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.

  • ViviEnglish
    15•2 days ago

    Reminder that the asteroid is only large enough to destroy a city and, even given the rare chance of it hitting Earth, in all likelihood would land in the ocean and cause no damage. It’s not a doomsday asteroid

    • Match!!English
      17•2 days ago

      imagine if it falls and perfectly annihilates the trump administration though

      • @[email protected]English
        7•2 days ago

        Unfortunately, Washington is outside of the possible impact zone. (Well, Washington in Brazil is inside, but it’s not about that one.)

    • @scaramoboEnglish
      1•1 day ago

      Here you simulate some of the effects. Pretty fun to drop an asteroid on some asshat from my youth’s house. Less fun when it wiped out my entire city and evaporated my parents. Welp… can’t have it all I guess. https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/