Wagner mercenaries were on Thursday reported to be trying to head back into Russia after threatening retaliation over the suspected killing of their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash on the orders of Vladimir Putin. “The convoys are likely heading towards the border with Russia,” the centre said. “There’s a lot talk right now about what the Wagner Group will do,” he said.
  • @[email protected]English
    179•10 months ago

    Take it with a grain of salt, people, none of the trustworthy sources confirmed any of that - just a couple of Ukrainian outlets (understandable as psyop) and, well, yahoo news and the like.

    As a Russian living in Russia and, obviously, closely following all the shit show, it does not seem like Wagner is going to do anything.

    Then again, I’m not sure about shit after 24 Feb 2022.

    • @[email protected]English
      2•10 months ago

      I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction. And if it’s the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?

      • @[email protected]English
        0•10 months ago

        PREFACE: Prior to 24 Feb 2022, I was really skeptical that Putin would start the war at all, though, so I might be really wrong here - I’m no expert, just a regular rusky Ivan with some opinions. Things in Russia aren’t really predictable at the moment.

        And if it’s the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?

        Unfortunately, all the tax-payers - remember, the government has no money of its own, only the money of its citizen and tax residents.

        I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction.

        Judging by the mutiny in June, I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines. The PMC itself will be probably be manipulated into control one way or another, either via a direct acquisition or some other scheme, all in attempt to smother the beast Putin himself had created.

        Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he’s very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he’s ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they’re not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn’t lived that lifestyle before (and won’t know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn’t any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.

        All that being said, the most important point is the following: Russia as a governmental entity has been very carefully engineering a society with as few leaders as possible, and succeeded well enough to make sure that our people just don’t really act on their desires and urges to protest en masse and for long; while it’s one thing for us, civilians, who aren’t armed, aren’t hardened by combat, aren’t used to real violence, the Wagner mercs aren’t really taught to be free-thinking individuals either, so even if they all want to storm Kremlin, I just don’t see that happening unless a figure powerful enough to lead them emerges.

        • @[email protected]English
          1•10 months ago

          I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines.

          That’s what I would do if I were Putin. I would basically dissolve the Wagner charter or whatever the equivalent is in Russia. I would then have a “skills interview and test” (loyalty test) and give the most loyal a pay bump and a promotion, even if in title only. I would basically make everyone an independent contractor so they all get paid different rates and have different performance incentives based off their role. That would basically ensure that they stay loyal to you, as they would be way less likely to join forces if everyone thinks they are special and better then the next guy.

          Then if the regular military catches wind of anyone’s pay, you can just say “they are an elite squad, some get paid more due to hazard pay”

          Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he’s very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he’s ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they’re not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn’t lived that lifestyle before (and won’t know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn’t any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.

          This is fascinating and the first I have heard of this. You clearly speak English well, do you have an English source I can read more about this?

          • @[email protected]English
            1•10 months ago

            That’s what I would do if I were Putin. I would basically dissolve the Wagner charter or whatever the equivalent is in Russia. I would then have a “skills interview and test” (loyalty test) and give the most loyal a pay bump and a promotion, even if in title only. I would basically make everyone an independent contractor so they all get paid different rates and have different performance incentives based off their role. That would basically ensure that they stay loyal to you, as they would be way less likely to join forces if everyone thinks they are special and better then the next guy.

            I don’t want to sound mean, but that sounds like a massive overcomplication from Putin’s side. To me, what you’re saying seems to make sense, but you and I are not Putin - I think neither of us is a narcissistic psychopath that’s been killing people en masse for at least a couple of dozen years. What makes sense to you or me might not necessary make any bit of sense to Putin - we wouldn’t have seen this war play out, nor the Crimea annexation, nor even Euromaidan, because without Putin’s egoistic attempts to control Ukraine via proxies (Yanukovich and the entire war in Donbass being the prime example) or directly.

            If we start talking about this from positions of common sense, we’ll simply go back so far back in time that it’s just easier to assume that everyone would be better off without Putin as a whole in the first place, from the very beginning.

            You clearly speak English well, do you have an English source I can read more about this?

            First of all, thank you! It’s probably my most cherished skill - really did open a lot of opportunities in my life in many ways. Not really sure I wouldn’t be rooting for Putin if it wasn’t for English leading me to more liberal places, first outside the Russian internet, then - interestingly enough - inside the Russian internet and Russia itself.

            As for the English sources, I’m afraid I can’t recommend anything. Things I know and share are mostly courtesy of the Russian-native sources of various kind, complied in my mind over years and years of discourse.

            Since links to other social media sites are forbidden by the rules here, I’ll leave a few easily-searchable sources below. Keep in mind that none of them are native English speakers, but all have their content readily available in English one way or another. It’s not as easy as I’d love it to be to share with you, but it’s the best sources I could think of to share with someone outside Russia, helping them understand what’s actually going on.

            • Vlad Vexler (YouTube) - I can’t really recall who he is exactly, but it’s safe to say he’s been studying/looking at the Russian politics for many years now, and shares some insights with the English-speaking audience. He doesn’t live in Russia and, from what I can tell, hasn’t lived there for decades, so he is a little rusty and out of touch with things like motivations of the elites, the processes in the society, etc., but it’s a good enough source if you need an English-speaking source.
            • Maxim Katz (YouTube) - a Russian-speaking politician, currently wanted by the Russian government and living in Israel until he can come back. Probably the best speaker we have right now. His production has gotten really professional since the beginning of the war in terms of subtitles, the topic coverage, upload frequency (as of yet, it’s daily, so there’s a lot of content if you’re interested) - very easy to follow, very humane, and extremely representative of the Russian society’s current demands and thoughts, despite everything people have to say. The channel covers a lot of topics, both from the liberal perspective and the more conservative/conformist one, trying to reach out to as many people as possible; sometimes they cover some things about the Russian opposition and the challenges it’s facing, which is a great peek into what’s going in Russian minds, too; sometimes they present some analysis on what’s to come in terms of the war or Russia or Putin, also making it very clear that their forecasts are extremely tentative due to the nature of such things in the situation Russia is in thanks to Putin; honestly. there’s so much Maxim and his team talk about that I wouldn’t be able to list everything here, but if you want to have a consistent, worthwhile and sensible insight into the country that Russia is today, this is probably the best option aside from regularly talking to someone inside (speaking of which, feel free to reach out, I’ll be happy to try and answer some questions; sometimes it makes me feel like I’m doing my little part in dissolving the myths about the obedient slavery-loving Russians that just crave to live under some mad dictatorships).
            • Ekaterina Schulmann (YouTube) - an extremely experienced and professional political scientist. She does have a channel, but also gives interviews to various media outside Russia in English, so you’ll have an easier time with getting info from her. Her analysis and understanding of Russia are a little more complicated than that of Maxim’s and Vlad’s from above, but if you want a really thorough look across large swathes of content, both from her specifically and just featuring her, this is definitely the woman to follow.
            • Ksenia Sobchak (YouTube and Telegram) - quite a big name in Russia in general, and now in more liberal media as well, but I can’t tell you much about her because she cover a wide variety of topics not just related to politics. Still, she’s another great example of someone trying to talk to both those pro war and those against - because, trust me, it’s a very complicated topic and throwing the former aside only helps Putin. Surely worth a few looks, especially over at YouTube with some subtitles.
            • Mikhail Khodorkovsky (YouTube) - a bit more radial than the rest, but nonetheless worth checking out. The insights he offers are a little more outdated than that of Maxim’s because Mikhail has been living outside Russia for years now, and spent even more in jail prior - Putin didn’t like him for multiple reasons and dealt with him in a relatively nice way (took away his business and with that, a great workplace for millions of people; I think my father used to work at his company, UKOS, and it was definitely better than today’s Rosneft for him in particular and us as a family as a whole). I do believe he is worth checking out anyway because he brings his experience of being a very active member of the Russian society during the 90s and 00s.
            • @[email protected]English
              1•10 months ago

              I really appreciate you taking the time to write all this out!

              I wouldn’t know what questions to even ask without first going through and watching the videos from what you posted.

              I guess my own questions right now would be about technology and access to information.

              Like how difficult is it to use the internet in Russia? Have you traveled internationally to have something to compare it to? I heard a lot of people use VPNs, do they worry a lot about being caught? What can’t you do without a VPN?

              I am also curious if you consume any western media, and if so what are your favorite and least favorite outlets. I am also curious what western sources have seemed the most accurate to you about Russia in general, if any at all.