I’ve seen many comments and posts regarding the API fiasco on Reddit, with the claim that there will be a huge influx of users when that happens. I’m all for it, but I find it hard to believe that the average or even above average user will make the effort to switch.
Not as many as you would think. I work in a technical field and most people had no idea there was a protest going on. They also didn’t even know of alternative mobile apps. Most didn’t care and just used the official app. There may be a slight bump, but nothing significant.
I think it’ll be significant for Lemmy, but not significant for r.
At the very least I think the bump will be enough for Lemmy to entrench itself within the FOSS space (ie Matrix)
I think it’ll be significant, but it won’t be an exodus. I can see a solid ~5-6% of Redditors leaving at once, then a small steady trickle afterwards. 6% would double our current active users.