In any given exchange of violence for these actors, it is a pretty reliable bet to say that there will be about a 10:1 ratio of Palestinians versus Israelis killed. I expect that we will see between 10k and 20k Palestinians killed, and probably somewhere less than 2k total Israelis killed. I think there will be fewer people killed by bombs and bullets than by the blockade. I suspect 90% of the casualties will be civilians. I think that all of the people who die in fear and pain while hiding in their homes as well as those who die on the barricades will be forgotten in a year or so.
I also suspect that the remaining checks on Bibi’s already significant power will end, and that Hamas will effectively cease to exist as a political power.
I’ve been out of that business for a while and was going off of memory, so I’ll go with your numbers.
I do think the world will pull the plug on this particular situation before there are 100k Palestinians dead unless Iran or Syria gets involved. I think the problem is going to be that the rate of death is going to go vertical, and it won’t be possible to stop before it hits 10k, which could happen in a month or less depending on what they do with electricity and fuel.
The thing is America already tried bombing an idea out of existence twice in Vietnam and Afghanistan and it failed twice. I just don’t see how brutal conflict does anything more then inspire the next generation of extremist. We need to break the cycle of violence.
I’m not saying that the desire for Palestinian autonomy is going to be ended. I’m saying that Hamas-the-organization is going to cease to be an effective factor in it. It will be replaced by another organization, or several. I could certainly see another intifada coming out of this.
But you can most certainly bomb (and buy) an idea out of existence. There was a time when there existed a pan-Arab movement. Partly post-colonial, partly anti-Israel, partly Third World-ism in reaction to the Cold War, it tried to unite the Arab world across the borders drawn by the colonialist countries.
It went down in flames due to
Their inability to do the one thing they set as their biggest goal, which was the military conquest of Israel.
US and USSR intelligence operations, diplomatic engagement, and economic and military cooperation
Internal factionalism and personal greed
That’s actually where politicized Islam has its roots - in the defeat of modern, semi-socialist Arab internationalism. Looking back, we would probably have been better off with the pan-Arab movement becoming an entity that could make peace with Israel (like Egypt did) than have political Islam replace what at the end of the day was basic national aspirations in the post-colonial period.
In any given exchange of violence for these actors, it is a pretty reliable bet to say that there will be about a 10:1 ratio of Palestinians versus Israelis killed. I expect that we will see between 10k and 20k Palestinians killed, and probably somewhere less than 2k total Israelis killed. I think there will be fewer people killed by bombs and bullets than by the blockade. I suspect 90% of the casualties will be civilians. I think that all of the people who die in fear and pain while hiding in their homes as well as those who die on the barricades will be forgotten in a year or so.
I also suspect that the remaining checks on Bibi’s already significant power will end, and that Hamas will effectively cease to exist as a political power.
Historically since 2008 to just before the conflict was 21:1, it’ll be more 100:1 by the end.
I’ve been out of that business for a while and was going off of memory, so I’ll go with your numbers.
I do think the world will pull the plug on this particular situation before there are 100k Palestinians dead unless Iran or Syria gets involved. I think the problem is going to be that the rate of death is going to go vertical, and it won’t be possible to stop before it hits 10k, which could happen in a month or less depending on what they do with electricity and fuel.
It’s what the UN states showed last I checked.
I remain hopeful I just think it’s very unlikely anyone can or will step in.
I think that other states will step in, and I think Israel will step back and say “What the fuck did we do?”
But history doesn’t make me think that’s going to happen nearly soon enough.
The thing is America already tried bombing an idea out of existence twice in Vietnam and Afghanistan and it failed twice. I just don’t see how brutal conflict does anything more then inspire the next generation of extremist. We need to break the cycle of violence.
I’m not saying that the desire for Palestinian autonomy is going to be ended. I’m saying that Hamas-the-organization is going to cease to be an effective factor in it. It will be replaced by another organization, or several. I could certainly see another intifada coming out of this.
But you can most certainly bomb (and buy) an idea out of existence. There was a time when there existed a pan-Arab movement. Partly post-colonial, partly anti-Israel, partly Third World-ism in reaction to the Cold War, it tried to unite the Arab world across the borders drawn by the colonialist countries.
It went down in flames due to
That’s actually where politicized Islam has its roots - in the defeat of modern, semi-socialist Arab internationalism. Looking back, we would probably have been better off with the pan-Arab movement becoming an entity that could make peace with Israel (like Egypt did) than have political Islam replace what at the end of the day was basic national aspirations in the post-colonial period.
What a useless statement. There is no way to break the cycle while Hamas exists. You know that.
Removed by mod
Yes yes, you want the genocidal of all Palestinian, don’t need to sugarcoat that.