What do you think would finally be their, “Enough, we gotta say something!” situation?
Edit:
Put another way, what might serve as a cosmic icebreaker?
What do you think would finally be their, “Enough, we gotta say something!” situation?
Edit:
Put another way, what might serve as a cosmic icebreaker?
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The oppressive existential threat you reference doesn’t need to exist for the universe to be a dark forest universe. It’s enough for every sufficiently advanced civilization to realize that such a threat could exist and remain quiet and hidden just in case.
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All it takes is one civilization to shoot off their mouth and get destroyed by a much more advanced neighbor, in some way that doesn’t look quite natural. That will tend to confirm the cosmic paranoia.
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You’re arguing based on a lot of misconceptions about the idea. Have you read “Three Body Problem” and/or the other books in the series?
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I do agree with your probability assessment; I too think that the Prime Directive is a more plausible answer to the Fermi paradox, as is “we’re just alone”.
However, it is not necessarily the case that everyone suddenly gets talking as soon as one of them breaks radio silence. If everyone is silent because of a perceived possible threat, then it stands to reason they will continue to be silent even when they receive a message.