• @[email protected]
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    37 months ago

    What happened if… purely hypothetically… China develops competitive chip fabrication plants that exports at scales rivalrious to Taiwan.

    And then fear of an invasion provokes detonation of Taiwan’s own facilities.

    Wouldn’t this turn China into a domestically source monopoly of high end chips?

    • @[email protected]
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      77 months ago

      It’s easier said than done. A few key pieces took decades to figure out and even now many can only be produced by one or two companies, like ASML.

        • @[email protected]
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          47 months ago

          Marketing terms mean nothing. SMIC’s nodes are nowhere near the real transistor density of TSMC’s or even Intel’s.

          But what’s worse than that are the yields. I don’t believe we have public numbers on their newest node yet, but their self-reported yields on their “7nm” process as of late 2022 was a pathetic 10-15%. TSMC’s 7nm yield (and you should remember that TSMC’s 7nm is vastly superior to SMIC’s) was getting over 70% yield when it was in pre-production trialing.

          • @[email protected]
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            17 months ago

            In that case, I guess there’s no problem and Taiwan will maintain semiconductor supremacy forever

              • @[email protected]
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                17 months ago

                The Chinese firms are end running US sanctions with improved technologies and your response seems to be “But their chips aren’t as good so it doesn’t count”.

                Nevermind the rapid pace of development or the fact that only TSMC and Samsung seems capable of matching it.

                The idea that Chinese manufacturers need Taiwan is demonstrably false.

                • @[email protected]
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                  17 months ago

                  No, I was dismissing your assertion that Chinese fab companies are at the same level, or ahead of, TSMC. The truth is they aren’t even close. This is something that even China themselves openly admit.

                  That’s a second time you’ve strawmanned me. I don’t appreciate words being put in my mouth.

                  Samsung? I’m sorry, are you keeping up with the industry at all? Samsung isn’t matching shit. They’re a node behind Intel and 2.5 behind TSMC. What development are they matching?

                  And yes, a multitude of Chinese manufacturers do need Taiwan. China in general does. Will that be true in the far future? Who knows. But it’s certainly true now and in the short term.

      • @[email protected]
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        47 months ago

        They would have very little reason to invade taiwan at that point. So they probably wouldn’t.

        Not about actually needing a reason to invade, it’s about the implication