I mean she could have spent a weekend in Michigan. That was an unforced error.
She could have addressed her relationship with Goldman Sachs, and all the other banks that fucked over the entirety of the American people during the housing crisis that she earned millions upon millions giving “speeches” to.
She could have made an olive branch to the progressive caucus.
She could have not said “Sit down and shut up” to BLM activists.
I think she would’ve won regardless of everything else, but it would’ve been closer. Really the mistake from the primaries is that she didn’t really try to incorporate any of Bernie’s ideas into her platform, or even work with him at all. She treated him as an opponent and obstacle, not as a rival and peer.
This is where Biden was successful however – he didn’t dismiss Bernie nor his platform ideas. He did incorporate some into presidency, most obviously the climate change policies and student debt forgiveness where possible.
And where I sincerely believe this difference came down to – Biden was friendly to Bernie in the Senate and made an effort to be friendly colleagues, if not work friends. Clinton didn’t. It shows the power of cooperation allying together with progressives, instead of allying together with “moderate” Republicans.
Maybe, but it happened right before the election. I observed noticeable shift in attitude. That’s not good evidence, I know, but Clinton’s polls which had been steady, took a 3% dip at the time and stayed down through election day.
People talked about the polls being off compared to the election, but the election matched the post-Comey polls pretty well. It’s only the polls that mixed pre-Comey data that were too high for Clinton.
If you are interested in doing a more detailed analysis of this, I can supply you with some boiler plate code. 538 has pretty detailed polling data that’s free to download. I’m going to be getting into it later in June for my monthly polling update.
I was considering calculating Trumps polling error differential from 2016 and seeing how it changed to 2020. I did a map of his differential polling error for 2020 for my update two weeks ago.
I’m also considering of taking the differential polling result for just swing states, applying it to current polling, and mapping out a series of ‘pathways’ to 270 for each candidate, highlighting where the pressure points are.
I think a trying to model the impact of a single news story could be pretty interesting.
Voters decided against her for mishandling classified documents, right? So these same voters, who think things through with consistency and integrity, will decide against someone who stole boxes of documents and got CIA agents killed selling state secrets to Russia, right?
Everyone talks about his base as an unmoving monolith. But to get elected, he needs more than his base. He needs the fence sitters. Many of these people may be very ill informed about all the corruption in his original administration and his business dealings. This result will make a big difference to them because it’s simple to understand. He’s a convicted felon.
Cult/ Cargo cult level “They will never support another candidate again” is what I mean. They’ll write him in. They’ll have wild conspiracy theories. Not need to push. It will happen it on its own.
I would guess its around 25-30% of Republican voters. Its the conspiracy theory mind-set cutting backwards against those that seed it. There is no undoing this.
If Donald could please just die and they continue writing in his name for all future votes that would be great. They are the most ignorant and racist people within a party wholly committed to cultivating ignorant and racist voters.
A few months ago? Jesus Christ, I remember that dumb shit from the numerology crew and I had kinda lost track of them for a couple of years. This country would be so much better if they would throw their ballots in the trash. Here’s hoping.
Hi there! Looks like you linked to a Lemmy community using a URL instead of its name, which doesn’t work well for people on different instances. Try fixing it like this: [email protected]
I suspect some people will mental gymnastics themselves into thinking this isn’t a serious crime, and stipulating an abstract ‘serious crime’ yields more extreme results than we’ll see as a result of this verdict.
But a few percentage point swing in a few key states is enough to ensure a Biden victory, so it may be enough.
The fact of the matter is for a lot of white Americans it’s either support the republican nominee or those scary minorities will take over. To them, a white criminal is preferable to what they see as guliable saps at best or race traitors at worst.
The end of the article after discussing the failure of the impeachment of Clinton to actually change polls despite a difference in the hypothetical poll question before it occurred:
“It’s possible for people to say a conviction would change their minds, but when/if [a conviction] happens, it’s possible (even likely) that it won’t matter at all."
My gut feeling is there’s nothing in this world that will sway his core supporters. Those rabid mouth-breathing dumbass kool-aid drinking dipshits would disown their own children if they thought one of them voted for a democrat.
However, I think it could sway a lot of swing voters away from Trump. In American elections for POTUS, swing voters are extremely important.
Unfortunately, Biden is fucking up so bad on foreign policy (Gaza) that will lose Biden a lot of swing voters, too. Still anybody’s race is my guess.
This is just all my gut. It’s hard to trust polls anymore.
Anyone who gives a shit about Gaza probably should try to ensure the country doesn’t elect a Muslim Ban guy who wants to accelerate the genocide and deport anyone protesting it.
FYI: Those leftists are right wing trolls under a false flag, exactly like those “Biden takes 100% blame for Israel’s every action” guys.
They come from /pol and Telegram.
Anecdotal… we drove through rural Ohio a few weeks ago. In several hours of travel we only saw ONE trump sign. The same place in 2016 or 2020 would have been full of them. Regardless of the impact of this, the enthusiasm is dead. There might be “maga guys” on Twitter but they’re largely disengaged in real life.
I rode the MABDR last week which for me involves traveling through a wide swath of rural Pennsylvania. Nearly all of the Trump paraphernalia is gone from people’s yards. I used to see hundreds of Trump signs and flags, confederate flags, the works. Now there are only a few dedicated nutters left. They know who they are.
The Stan Clark Military Books store on 30 west of Gettysburg that has a massive “Don’t Blame Us, We Voted For Trump/Pence” sign (notably, still including Pence!) right out front of their business. Here it is on Street View. As an extra slap in the face, this is right on the edge of the Gettysburg battlefield and memorial.
The twerp in Biglerville who has his tiny front yard fenced off with chicken wire and used to have a life sized Trump mannequin in his lawn dressed up in propaganda T-shirts all the time. I thought for sure he moved since all was subdued there for a few months last year, but now he’s got all kinds of Trump and alt-right flags all over his lawn and porch. His place was looking comparatively tame last year.
The marquee on what I assume is the old bank building in Red Lion which has a marquee on it that reads “If Biden is the answer, how stupid was the question?” Street View link here.. The sides of it read “Frauds of 2020” and “Pause for enlightenment.”
The guy on 896 just south of Ninepoints with the giant “Trump Not Bought Or Sold” sign (except by the Russians, of course). He has another massive sign next to it with some anti-Biden thing on it but I can’t remember what it says offhand. Alas, his Street View photo was apparently taken in 2019 which was before the signs went up.
The remainder of these dillweeds seem to be… curiously silent compared to previously. It’s kind of weird.
If you sneak into their safe spaces online you can definitely tell they are unmotivated compared to 4-8 years ago.
They liked Trump because he bullied others publicly. They don’t want to side with the guy currently getting bullied, goes against their survival instinct.
All the people in my development that had them up still have the signs from 2020 going strong… It’s still pretty split from talking with neighbors. One person near me is in business selling heavy equipment and they’re looking forward to trump because they feel they sell more equipment when republicans are in office. I guess that’s a viewpoint… For sure.
Wait… But Biden passed a massive infrastructure law. There’s a lot of people who could feel like he didn’t really do anything to improve their economic outlook, but a guy who sells heavy equipment shouldn’t be one of them.
I doubt Biden would use this as an excuse to drop out of the debate. His campaign thinks the debate will help him more than Trump, and they’re probably right. Outside of his diehard supporters and people keeping up with politics, most voters haven’t heard Trump speak at length since the end of his presidency. The debate is an opportunity to remind them how fucking weird he is.
Maybe his core supporters, but past elections have shown that he can’t win the popular vote. He is dependent on swing states where there are more people on the fence, and this might be enough.
I think a lot of his supporters are mostly burnt out on him. Even the hardliners are really just in this for the Wrestlemania storyline quality and this guy isn’t entertaining anymore, he just has legal bullshit around him, he says the same catchphrases all the time, he’s looking older and more haggard than we’ve ever seen, and conservatives are super fixated on superficial appearances.
I don’t think we’re “safe” by any means, but I think a lot of people are going to fall off and it might make a large difference.
I wish you were right. I live in Trumpistan and this will only make people like him more. The only way we can stop this madness is actually have him in an actual jail. Even then I’m not so sure.
Do you guys think this matters to his voters/supporters?
Some undecideds, sure. It only takes ten thousand voters in a couple swing states to change the outcome.
I mean, that could have been the difference in the 2016 election.
Remember when Clinton lost the election because the FBI didn’t find anything on her assistant’s laptop?
I mean she could have spent a weekend in Michigan. That was an unforced error.
She could have addressed her relationship with Goldman Sachs, and all the other banks that fucked over the entirety of the American people during the housing crisis that she earned millions upon millions giving “speeches” to.
She could have made an olive branch to the progressive caucus.
She could have not said “Sit down and shut up” to BLM activists.
There are a lot of things she could have done.
She could have Pokemon gone to Michigan
Amazing 👏
She was too busy “just chilling” in Cedar Rapids
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Or, like, hear me out, the Democrats could have not nominated her and nominated someone who isn’t strongly disliked by both sides.
Should’ve Been Bernie
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To be fair, we elected a Bush twice, and if Sirhan Sirhan hadn’t shot Bobby we’d have had two Kennedies to go along with the Roosevelts and Adamses
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She could also not have stolen the fucking nomination from Sanders
I think she would’ve won regardless of everything else, but it would’ve been closer. Really the mistake from the primaries is that she didn’t really try to incorporate any of Bernie’s ideas into her platform, or even work with him at all. She treated him as an opponent and obstacle, not as a rival and peer.
This is where Biden was successful however – he didn’t dismiss Bernie nor his platform ideas. He did incorporate some into presidency, most obviously the climate change policies and student debt forgiveness where possible.
And where I sincerely believe this difference came down to – Biden was friendly to Bernie in the Senate and made an effort to be friendly colleagues, if not work friends. Clinton didn’t. It shows the power of cooperation allying together with progressives, instead of allying together with “moderate” Republicans.
Its fine though. The Supreme Court said they can rig their own primaries. /s
That’s all true, but she still would have won without the dramatic search of Huma Abadeen’s laptop.
You know I completely forgot about that laptop thing. I remember the emails but that is about it.
I dont think that moved anyone. Like I really dont. The laptop thing was only interesting to Trump die-hards.
Maybe, but it happened right before the election. I observed noticeable shift in attitude. That’s not good evidence, I know, but Clinton’s polls which had been steady, took a 3% dip at the time and stayed down through election day.
People talked about the polls being off compared to the election, but the election matched the post-Comey polls pretty well. It’s only the polls that mixed pre-Comey data that were too high for Clinton.
If you are interested in doing a more detailed analysis of this, I can supply you with some boiler plate code. 538 has pretty detailed polling data that’s free to download. I’m going to be getting into it later in June for my monthly polling update.
I was considering calculating Trumps polling error differential from 2016 and seeing how it changed to 2020. I did a map of his differential polling error for 2020 for my update two weeks ago.
I’m also considering of taking the differential polling result for just swing states, applying it to current polling, and mapping out a series of ‘pathways’ to 270 for each candidate, highlighting where the pressure points are.
I think a trying to model the impact of a single news story could be pretty interesting.
There were a lot of factors at play in 2016, and the margin was tiny. She had a lot of factors under her control that could’ve led to victory.
Trying to run for president while having two X chromosomes was a massive error on her part as well.
Voters decided against her for mishandling classified documents, right? So these same voters, who think things through with consistency and integrity, will decide against someone who stole boxes of documents and got CIA agents killed selling state secrets to Russia, right?
It blows my mind that anyone can still be undecided in 2024.
Lot of people don’t pay any attention to politics. Yes, even in this climate.
Everyone talks about his base as an unmoving monolith. But to get elected, he needs more than his base. He needs the fence sitters. Many of these people may be very ill informed about all the corruption in his original administration and his business dealings. This result will make a big difference to them because it’s simple to understand. He’s a convicted felon.
34 times no less.
This. There’s a lot of components to his base.
This is not a good outcome for his campaign.
To many of them, no. To some who would have voted for him, maybe yes.
There’s some evidence to suggest he’ll lose significant support: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/48654-would-donald-trump-conviction-move-his-voters-evidence-from-past-present-bill-clinton-polls
But hard to know for sure.
I’m making a called shot of a drop into the 40’s for July’s polling.
He wont’ drop below 25%, ever. That’s his core. They may never support another candidate again.
However, dropping to high 30’s low 40’s only puts Trump back to par with Biden. Hardly a W, but at lease Biden would be back in the running.
Don’t do that. Don’t give me hope.
I mean it in a “There are still people who think gamestop is going to be a billion dollar stock” manner.
See: https://lemmy.world/c/gamestopstock
Cult/ Cargo cult level “They will never support another candidate again” is what I mean. They’ll write him in. They’ll have wild conspiracy theories. Not need to push. It will happen it on its own.
I would guess its around 25-30% of Republican voters. Its the conspiracy theory mind-set cutting backwards against those that seed it. There is no undoing this.
If Donald could please just die and they continue writing in his name for all future votes that would be great. They are the most ignorant and racist people within a party wholly committed to cultivating ignorant and racist voters.
Thats what I’m conjecturing. This is the cohort that thought JFK was going to show up to some event or something a few months ago.
A few months ago? Jesus Christ, I remember that dumb shit from the numerology crew and I had kinda lost track of them for a couple of years. This country would be so much better if they would throw their ballots in the trash. Here’s hoping.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-qanon-believers-think-jfk-170839245.html
I don’t think you need to worry about them throwing their ballots away as long as we can get through this gate.
Hi there! Looks like you linked to a Lemmy community using a URL instead of its name, which doesn’t work well for people on different instances. Try fixing it like this: [email protected]
I suspect some people will mental gymnastics themselves into thinking this isn’t a serious crime, and stipulating an abstract ‘serious crime’ yields more extreme results than we’ll see as a result of this verdict.
But a few percentage point swing in a few key states is enough to ensure a Biden victory, so it may be enough.
The fact of the matter is for a lot of white Americans it’s either support the republican nominee or those scary minorities will take over. To them, a white criminal is preferable to what they see as guliable saps at best or race traitors at worst.
That’s before Facebook and Fox News kicks in though.
They can rewrite people’s brains.
The end of the article after discussing the failure of the impeachment of Clinton to actually change polls despite a difference in the hypothetical poll question before it occurred:
I think “all 34 counts” is more meaningful than 33 out 34 or anything less.
Any truly room temperature IQ folks out there can maybe see the light. Maybe.
Or they see it as “See? The courts are obviously corrupted. Not even one count was innocent? There’s no way he committed THAT much crime.”
My gut feeling is there’s nothing in this world that will sway his core supporters. Those rabid mouth-breathing dumbass kool-aid drinking dipshits would disown their own children if they thought one of them voted for a democrat.
However, I think it could sway a lot of swing voters away from Trump. In American elections for POTUS, swing voters are extremely important.
Unfortunately, Biden is fucking up so bad on foreign policy (Gaza) that will lose Biden a lot of swing voters, too. Still anybody’s race is my guess.
This is just all my gut. It’s hard to trust polls anymore.
Swing voters either dgaf about Gaza or are in favor of what Israel is doing. Gaza hurts Biden with his base.
Anyone who gives a shit about Gaza probably should try to ensure the country doesn’t elect a Muslim Ban guy who wants to accelerate the genocide and deport anyone protesting it.
Fuck off to Nick Fuentes then.
FYI: Those leftists are right wing trolls under a false flag, exactly like those “Biden takes 100% blame for Israel’s every action” guys. They come from /pol and Telegram.
Anecdotal… we drove through rural Ohio a few weeks ago. In several hours of travel we only saw ONE trump sign. The same place in 2016 or 2020 would have been full of them. Regardless of the impact of this, the enthusiasm is dead. There might be “maga guys” on Twitter but they’re largely disengaged in real life.
Can confirm the other way around; Saw one sign in all of Iowa. None in Nebraska. It was pleasant aside from all the Jesus/Abortion signage lol
I rode the MABDR last week which for me involves traveling through a wide swath of rural Pennsylvania. Nearly all of the Trump paraphernalia is gone from people’s yards. I used to see hundreds of Trump signs and flags, confederate flags, the works. Now there are only a few dedicated nutters left. They know who they are.
The remainder of these dillweeds seem to be… curiously silent compared to previously. It’s kind of weird.
If you sneak into their safe spaces online you can definitely tell they are unmotivated compared to 4-8 years ago.
They liked Trump because he bullied others publicly. They don’t want to side with the guy currently getting bullied, goes against their survival instinct.
I was just in South Arkansas for a few days, and only saw one flag, and no bumper stickers for trump
I drove there a few hours ago and saw like 4. But that’s definitely less than even last year
All the people in my development that had them up still have the signs from 2020 going strong… It’s still pretty split from talking with neighbors. One person near me is in business selling heavy equipment and they’re looking forward to trump because they feel they sell more equipment when republicans are in office. I guess that’s a viewpoint… For sure.
Wait… But Biden passed a massive infrastructure law. There’s a lot of people who could feel like he didn’t really do anything to improve their economic outlook, but a guy who sells heavy equipment shouldn’t be one of them.
Happened to me. We got one of those contracts and I got a pretty respectable raise
1 in 6 say it could change their mind https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/one-in-six-voters-say-trump-verdict-could-change-their-minds-ahead-of-tight-election-poll-finds/ar-BB1nl6y2
I wonder how many of those 1 in 6 just want the fighting to stop instead of caring about either side.
It emboldens his supporters because they believe the “deep state”, “witch hunt”, “Democrats paid off the jury” etc according to social media now.
I could see Biden dropping out of the debate also saying “I don’t debate felons”.
I doubt Biden would use this as an excuse to drop out of the debate. His campaign thinks the debate will help him more than Trump, and they’re probably right. Outside of his diehard supporters and people keeping up with politics, most voters haven’t heard Trump speak at length since the end of his presidency. The debate is an opportunity to remind them how fucking weird he is.
Maybe his core supporters, but past elections have shown that he can’t win the popular vote. He is dependent on swing states where there are more people on the fence, and this might be enough.
This matters to intelligent, educated, and critically-thinking people. So, no, it doesn’t matter to his sycophants.
Doubt it, but I don’t care. They are basically a cult at this point, no rational thought.
This matters to everyone else. And it could keep him from being president again.
I think a lot of his supporters are mostly burnt out on him. Even the hardliners are really just in this for the Wrestlemania storyline quality and this guy isn’t entertaining anymore, he just has legal bullshit around him, he says the same catchphrases all the time, he’s looking older and more haggard than we’ve ever seen, and conservatives are super fixated on superficial appearances.
I don’t think we’re “safe” by any means, but I think a lot of people are going to fall off and it might make a large difference.
I wish you were right. I live in Trumpistan and this will only make people like him more. The only way we can stop this madness is actually have him in an actual jail. Even then I’m not so sure.
They can only vote once. At least until Trump wins because from then on we’ll have elections Russia-style.
Nah. I could see this actually being a positive to his brain-dead supporters.
matter to them? yeah of course
Im expecting another insurrection soon…
Maybe this time the government will send riot police instead of doormen
It emboldens them because he already painted himself the victim, the outsider. He literally called it a witch hunt.
Nope, it’s just going to be more proof that he’s the guy to take on the ‘deep state’ and so on in their minds.
Does it matter if it matters to them? They are beyond the pale since years.
Not many, but perhaps enough to make a difference in the handful of swing states.
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That isn’t true though. Most convicted felons can’t vote, but they can run for office.
Except they can. Can’t vote depending on the crime and the state, but can totally hold office.
Pretty sure felons can’t vote in Florida.
Some of them yes, some of them no.