@[email protected] to politics @lemmy.world • 5 months agoNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netmessage-square68fedilinkarrow-up1120
arrow-up1120external-linkNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.net@[email protected] to politics @lemmy.world • 5 months agomessage-square68fedilink
minus-squareObjectivityIncarnatelinkfedilink20•5 months agoThis is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias. Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t stop being a bad idea if you win the $2 after 1 bet.
minus-square@[email protected]linkfedilink7•5 months agoTell me you don’t understand directionally or literal numbers without telling me…
This is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias.
Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t stop being a bad idea if you win the $2 after 1 bet.
Removed by mod
Tell me you don’t understand directionally or literal numbers without telling me…
Removed by mod