Former First Lady Michelle Obama is the only Democrat running ahead of former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical matchup, according to a new poll.
In polling there’s a piece of wisdom that journalists don’t listen to. Ignore the outlier polls. If there’s multiple polls saying one thing and one poll saying something else then there’s far more likely to be something wrong with the one outlier. But clickbait machine goes brrrrt.
Okay looks like Clickbait Machine goes brrrt for a different reason here. The upshot is that many respondents skipped the follow on questions. So assuming any amount of campaigning is competently done then the 12% Don’t know/skip category is likely to shrink closer to the 4% of the Biden-Trump match up. Then you can see that 40% of the respondents just answered Trump no matter what. In fact the Democrats percentage goes down nearly in lockstep with, Don’t Know/Skipped. So, in my opinion, there’s a really good chance the Democrats could actually pick up most of that column for Beshear or Pritzker.
In polling there’s a piece of wisdom that journalists don’t listen to. Ignore the outlier polls. If there’s multiple polls saying one thing and one poll saying something else then there’s far more likely to be something wrong with the one outlier. But clickbait machine goes brrrrt.
https://am11.mediaite.com/med/cnt/uploads/2024/07/Screen-Shot-2024-07-02-at-5.06.44-PM.jpg
Okay looks like Clickbait Machine goes brrrt for a different reason here. The upshot is that many respondents skipped the follow on questions. So assuming any amount of campaigning is competently done then the 12% Don’t know/skip category is likely to shrink closer to the 4% of the Biden-Trump match up. Then you can see that 40% of the respondents just answered Trump no matter what. In fact the Democrats percentage goes down nearly in lockstep with, Don’t Know/Skipped. So, in my opinion, there’s a really good chance the Democrats could actually pick up most of that column for Beshear or Pritzker.