Keep an eye on the fact that they didn’t put a specific dollar amount like the average size of those small dollar donations. The answer is in this article, you just have to read past the words and do the math.
Lets assume say, $30 a small dollar donation? Thats a pretty typical number that gets thrown around.
Puts it at 72 mil for that quarter, which is like, really good, except that:
25/72 =
34.7%
So if the big money pulls out of Biden as candidate, his fundraising would be relying on solely grass roots, and he would experience a 65% hit in donations.
I mean, the closest competing Democrat was basically the inversion of those numbers. Bernie was like 60-70 something percent donations of less than $200?
Small dollar donations are less likely to “move” than large donations are. It gives you a sustainability and independence that you don’t get when most of your donations come from big donors.
If any candidate, really at any level, fundraising dropped by 60% thats it. They’re cooked. Because those dollars are going to go some where.
I think we should pin the small dollar question because since we started this, I’ve been trying to find better data on it, and its surprisingly difficult to find a granular enough breakdown to do a useful analysis. Maybe we can come back to in in a month or so and see how things have ended up post debate. It always take some time for things to trickle into effect.
Biden’s loss of support is largely with the sadly important contingent of low-information low-engagement voters who are the difference between victory and defeat in most elections in this fucking country
So I’m interested in where you are getting this, because from what I’ve seen, its the most politically engaged that have been shouting from the roof tops for months, longer even, that Biden needs to be replaced. Specifically, the Nate Silvers, Ezra Kleins of the world. I think you are projecting an opinion that is just uninformed here. Its only the “medium information” voters that have been putting out that Biden is going to be the nominee, people who only get their news from cable TV, or mainstream sources, with no real analysis.
Low engagement voters aren’t even represented in the current conversation and likely wont be until after August. At best they’ve seen a couple reels or tictocs of Biden mumbling or Trump lying. And I do agree at least that future events will bring low-engagement voters to the table. Specifically, an open convention would be so dominating of the news cycle, there is no way they’ll be able to stay un-informed.
Ok I get what you are saying, but the point I was making is that the “highest information” people there are; the most politically engaged, don’t agree with you with regards to specific issues around things like the viability of Biden as candidate.
You suggested that its “low information” voters that had this view. This is what I’m pushing back on. The most informed, most politically astute among us have the same view that I have, and have been promoting, that Joe Biden is losing this election and is a lost cause candidate. I got there through my own analysis of his polling data and the probability that he can actually get the level of “swing” in his polling numbers that he needs (my results showed it to be, a practical statistical impossibility). I took a very different approach than Nate does, but we ended up with very similar results.
[you are editing this in real time it makes it hard to keep up]
They’re going to say “Wow, the Democrats are really in disarray! I wonder if I should even bother voting for them.”
It is an event that will be a 450 thousand pound gorilla in the room. It will UTTTERLY dominate the new cycle in a way that a boring “joe biden” coronation simply couldn’t. You would see something on the order of 10:1 coverage of the DNC convention compared to the RNC convention if there is an actual horse race. It would actually engage voters in that they want to “know” who the candidate is going to be.
It would be phenomenal marketing, and whomever came out on top would be riding a rocket.
Ditching Joe Biden and going to an open convention with say: Newsom, Witmer, Kamala, and maybe Beshear.
First, we get to ditch Joe Biden’s terrible baggage on Israel. And the new nominee gets to cherry pick what they want to own about the administration (more difficult for Kamala).
Second, for whoever wins, they get a suddenly unified Democratic party behind them. We get leave the baggage of Joe Biden behind and they get to mount a rocket ship coming out of the convention. What they do with that rocket is on them, but theyll have more earned media than any candidate other than maybe 2016 Trump.
No its a great thing; an open convention best possible outcome.
Keep an eye on the fact that they didn’t put a specific dollar amount like the average size of those small dollar donations. The answer is in this article, you just have to read past the words and do the math.
Lets assume say, $30 a small dollar donation? Thats a pretty typical number that gets thrown around.
864000*.96*$30 == $24,883,200
So call it 25 million?
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/14/politics/biden-fundraising-reelection-campaign-president/index.html
Puts it at 72 mil for that quarter, which is like, really good, except that:
25/72 =
34.7%
So if the big money pulls out of Biden as candidate, his fundraising would be relying on solely grass roots, and he would experience a 65% hit in donations.
Removed by mod
I mean, the closest competing Democrat was basically the inversion of those numbers. Bernie was like 60-70 something percent donations of less than $200?
Small dollar donations are less likely to “move” than large donations are. It gives you a sustainability and independence that you don’t get when most of your donations come from big donors.
If any candidate, really at any level, fundraising dropped by 60% thats it. They’re cooked. Because those dollars are going to go some where.
Removed by mod
I think we should pin the small dollar question because since we started this, I’ve been trying to find better data on it, and its surprisingly difficult to find a granular enough breakdown to do a useful analysis. Maybe we can come back to in in a month or so and see how things have ended up post debate. It always take some time for things to trickle into effect.
So I’m interested in where you are getting this, because from what I’ve seen, its the most politically engaged that have been shouting from the roof tops for months, longer even, that Biden needs to be replaced. Specifically, the Nate Silvers, Ezra Kleins of the world. I think you are projecting an opinion that is just uninformed here. Its only the “medium information” voters that have been putting out that Biden is going to be the nominee, people who only get their news from cable TV, or mainstream sources, with no real analysis.
Low engagement voters aren’t even represented in the current conversation and likely wont be until after August. At best they’ve seen a couple reels or tictocs of Biden mumbling or Trump lying. And I do agree at least that future events will bring low-engagement voters to the table. Specifically, an open convention would be so dominating of the news cycle, there is no way they’ll be able to stay un-informed.
Removed by mod
Ok I get what you are saying, but the point I was making is that the “highest information” people there are; the most politically engaged, don’t agree with you with regards to specific issues around things like the viability of Biden as candidate.
You suggested that its “low information” voters that had this view. This is what I’m pushing back on. The most informed, most politically astute among us have the same view that I have, and have been promoting, that Joe Biden is losing this election and is a lost cause candidate. I got there through my own analysis of his polling data and the probability that he can actually get the level of “swing” in his polling numbers that he needs (my results showed it to be, a practical statistical impossibility). I took a very different approach than Nate does, but we ended up with very similar results.
[you are editing this in real time it makes it hard to keep up]
It is an event that will be a 450 thousand pound gorilla in the room. It will UTTTERLY dominate the new cycle in a way that a boring “joe biden” coronation simply couldn’t. You would see something on the order of 10:1 coverage of the DNC convention compared to the RNC convention if there is an actual horse race. It would actually engage voters in that they want to “know” who the candidate is going to be.
It would be phenomenal marketing, and whomever came out on top would be riding a rocket.
Ditching Joe Biden and going to an open convention with say: Newsom, Witmer, Kamala, and maybe Beshear.
First, we get to ditch Joe Biden’s terrible baggage on Israel. And the new nominee gets to cherry pick what they want to own about the administration (more difficult for Kamala).
Second, for whoever wins, they get a suddenly unified Democratic party behind them. We get leave the baggage of Joe Biden behind and they get to mount a rocket ship coming out of the convention. What they do with that rocket is on them, but theyll have more earned media than any candidate other than maybe 2016 Trump.
No its a great thing; an open convention best possible outcome.
Removed by mod
ahh we’re gonna know sooner. Couple weeks, max.