Democratic strategist David Axelrod wrote on social media after President Biden’s Thursday night press conference that his odds of winning the presidential race this fall are “very very slim.”
Axelrod said Biden’s team “has not been very candid” with the president after Biden at the presser said no poll or person is telling him he cannot win in November.
That’s not what models say. It’s pretty much 50/50. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
And all the fashion models I hang out with are saying the same things. The models agree.
And if it’s even slightly close, the SC hands it to the GOP.
Also, it should in no fucking way whatsoever be 50/50 , but here we are.
If it’s 50/50 in a national poll, Biden will lose by several states in the EC. No SCOTUS intervention required.
I don’t understand how this is possible with the current polling consistently showing a Trump edge and his structural advantage in the EC. Worth noting that ABC inexplicably laid off Nate Silver and he took his model system with him. I imagine they’ve built something similar to replace it but it remains untested compared to their past predictions.
That said, Biden clearly has a chance to win, so I think Axelrod may be overstating it here. But Trump does seem to be a clear favorite from the available information.
You’re not going to change my mind on fashion models. Even when they’re wrong, you’re better off just shutting your mouth so they let you in the club. (Or clüb for my continental friends.)
I think Nate Silver is clever but not a rigorous intellectual. His “model” is not even open source, and predicting presidential elections has 50ish data points and fewer than 10 that are uncertain. He made a good model but it is what it is: a model of the last election. (Nothing has changed. We can assume it’s the same as last time, right?)
I also just assume he’s gonna get on the right wing grift circuit before too long. One last score is saying “woke is bad.” And he can justify anything to himself.
Removed by mod
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket Nate Silver did, in fact, do the right wing grift thing.
All good points, I’m not necessarily saying Nate’s is better, just that the fivethirtyeight model is probably different from past years.
There’s also the economist which shows Trump a 3/4 favorite. I have little knowledge of their methods or history so take that with a grain of salt but it’s worth considering.
Data aside, the GOP has been uniting over the RNC and joining hands for their support of the candidate while the Democrats are imploding and casting doubt on themselves left and right. Will be curious to see how things shift in terms of polling. But at the end of the day, we have two very different candidates with different values. Would not surprise me to see a shift like we did in France and UK where last minute coalitions tip the scales.
It’s easy to complain now about disliking one candidate over another, but when left with the final decision at the end of the day, things change.