FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

Polls are crap

It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise

But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is

  • @[email protected]
    15•4 months ago

    Gave up on FiveThirtyEight after 2016. Once again, it’s all about turnout.

    • TheRealKuniEnglish
      10•4 months ago

      2016 was what gave FiveThirtyEight credibility. They’d given the highest chance to Trump, IIRC, out of the aggregators.

    • @[email protected]
      6•4 months ago

      If I am remembering correctly then fivethirtyeight gave him a ~33% chance of winning, which was absolutely within the realm of possibility

      • @[email protected]
        2•4 months ago

        I think it may have been around 20%, but 1 out of 5 is still reasonable.