Progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) announced Wednesday that there are currently enough votes in the Senate to suspend the filibuster to codify Roe v. Wade and abortion rights if Democrats win control of the House and keep the Senate and White House.
“We will suspend the filibuster. We have the votes for that on Roe v. Wade,” Warren said on ABC’s “The View.”
She said if Democrats control the White House and both chambers of Congress in 2025, “the first vote Democrats will take in the Senate, the first substantive vote, will be to make Roe v. Wade law of the land again in America.”
Was 538 wrong or do people just not understand statistics?
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I’m not sure that’s correct. 538 was always a polling aggregator, but people treated it like 60% chance means “for sure.” I think what we’re now seeing is we don’t actually have much good polling data due to extremism, and therefore sites like 538 aren’t as valuable.
I distinctly remember Silver refused to make a prediction on who would win in 2016 because he insisted that Trump’s 33% odds according to 538 meant there was a very real chance of a Trump victory. But everyone came out an blamed Silver for calling it wrong.
I don’t actually like the guy, I think his analysis and political savvy is pretty weak and he comes off as incredibly arrogant. But he literally just runs a weighted data aggregator. So if the data is bad, his results will be bad too.
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