Historian Allan Lichtman has announced his prediction on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election.
  • stonerboner
    18·
    10 months ago

    Or, we could just accept the simple fact that if the candidates change, so too does the prediction. He made his predictions based on the options available at the time.

    Kinda shortsided to consider that an L.

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      10 months ago

      What?

      He claimed replacing Biden was bad…

      Despite all evidence showing anyone else would do better.

      Biden was replaced, and despite being very unpopular the last time she was up for president, she skyrocketed in the polls compared to Biden.

      Hell, we don’t even need to wait for the election, the massive gains in polls alone shows it was a good idea to replace a candidate that Dem voters just didn’t fucking want.

      Like, do you even know his method?

      https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-to-the-white-house.cfm

      We don’t meet 8 of his 13 criteria, so by his “proven method” Republicans will win.

      So either his prediction is right and his method is wrong, or hes not using the same method and past predictions aren’t relevant

      • FlowVoid@lemmy.worldEnglish
        12·
        10 months ago

        We don’t meet 8 of his 13 criteria, so by his “proven method” Republicans will win.

        Uh, no. He said Democrats meet 8 of 13 keys, and that’s why he thinks Harris will win.

        Key 2 – No Primary Contest: With Joe Biden’s endorsement clearing the field for Harris, there are no significant challengers from within the party.

        Key 4 – No Third Party: Historically, third parties are detrimental to the White House party. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need 5% of the vote to influence this key, with a potential stabilization at 10% deemed unlikely by Lichtman.

        Key 5 – Strong Short-Term Economy: No recession has been declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research this year.

        Key 6 – Strong Long-Term Economy: Economic growth under Biden has exceeded that of the previous two terms, adjusted for inflation.

        Key 7 – Major Policy Change: Biden’s policies mark a significant departure from the Trump administration.

        Key 8 – No Social Unrest: Lichtman notes that only massive unrest, akin to the 1960s or Black Lives Matter protests, could impact this key. The current unrest is not considered significant enough.

        Key 9 – No Scandal: There has been no bipartisan-recognized corruption scandal involving the president.

        Key 13 – Uncharismatic Challenger: Donald Trump is perceived as unappealing to voters across party lines.

      • corsicanguppy@lemmy.caEnglish
        8·
        10 months ago

        He claimed replacing Biden was bad…

        Despite all evidence showing anyone else would do better.

        \sigh

        As stated oh, so, so-so, so, so many times, replacing the incumbent has historically been suicidal. Based on the trends, it’s a horrible idea.

      • RampantParanoia2365@lemmy.world
        5·
        10 months ago

        One, this seems like a different type of prediction.

        Two, it sounds like a few of his predictors could only be determined after she began her run, so there was no way to make this call until it happened. I don’t think anyone could have predicted the excitement she’s created, either.

        • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2·
          10 months ago

          I don’t think anyone could have predicted the excitement she’s created, either

          I did, a long with a metric shit ton of other people, literally all over…

          When we kept saying:

          Literally anyone except Hillary would do better.

          That included literally everyone except Hillary.

          Kamala Harris is not Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, and predictably numbers immediately improved.

          It’s bad enough moderates kept saying that was wrong at the time, but the complete revisionist history just weeks after it happened is fucking ridiculous.

          trump voters barely rewrite history this fast…

          You couldn’t see it coming.

          The politicians you support couldn’t see it coming.

          The political commentators you listen to couldn’t see it coming.

          And rather than take a second to see if maybe that means your views are wrong, you just claim “gee, no one could have guessed!”. And March forward to the same bullshit, once again insisting your opinions are correct

          Like, how the fuck can anyone even pretend that they didn’t hear anyone say that Biden was a shit candidate and replacing him would help regardless of who it was?

          • corsicanguppy@lemmy.caEnglish
            2·
            10 months ago

            When we kept saying:

            Literally anyone except Hillary would do better.

            But did anyone listen after you said ‘literally’? I usually tune out when a ‘litchally’ hits the floor. Sorry, but it’s true.

          • abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us
            1·
            10 months ago

            I don’t see that he’s rewriting history. He thought Biden would do better - but still thinks Harris can win. Or else he thought Biden could do better, but now with the additional new data that came with Harris getting nominated he has indeed changed his mind. But it’s not like he’s going back and denying his earlier concerns or support of Biden…