@[email protected] to politics @lemmy.worldEnglish • 14 days agoHistorian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pickwww.usatoday.commessage-square37fedilinkarrow-up170
arrow-up170external-linkHistorian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pickwww.usatoday.com@[email protected] to politics @lemmy.worldEnglish • 14 days agomessage-square37fedilink
minus-square@[email protected]linkfedilinkEnglish42•14 days agoIf a hundred people try to guess ten coin flips, odds are at least one of them will guess nine out of ten. That doesn’t make them an expert.
minus-square@[email protected]linkfedilinkEnglish20•14 days agoAnd that’s on coin flips. Many of the last 10 elections weren’t hard to predict.
minus-square@[email protected]linkfedilink6•14 days agoCoincidentally the odds are that almost exactly one will guess 9 out of 10 correctly, and about four people will guess 8 out of 10 correctly. Odds drop to about 1 in 1000 for guessing all 10 correctly.
If a hundred people try to guess ten coin flips, odds are at least one of them will guess nine out of ten. That doesn’t make them an expert.
And that’s on coin flips. Many of the last 10 elections weren’t hard to predict.
Gotta get them an octopus.
Coincidentally the odds are that almost exactly one will guess 9 out of 10 correctly, and about four people will guess 8 out of 10 correctly. Odds drop to about 1 in 1000 for guessing all 10 correctly.