Vantage Data House
app.vantagedatahouse.com

Hopium? This blog is suggesting an incredible margin of victory for Harris.

VDH is the website. They are outright calling respected meta-polls FiveThirtyEight and RCP completely wrong. Their overall argument is that the Senate-race is incredibly favored in the Democrat’s favor.

I don’t know if I necessarily believe that argument. But its still interesting to think about. Discuss?

  • @[email protected]M
    4•2 months ago

    a lot of early votes for Harris are first time voters or infrequent voters, and not from the pool of 2020 early voters.

    And that’s the #1 problem with polling.

    Look at 538 for PA:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

    Here’s what people miss… Go down the LEFT hand column.

    860LV
    1,586LV
    840LV
    812LV
    812LV
    866RV
    866RV
    794RV
    583LV
    794RV
    1,084LV
    1,256LV
    2,048LV
    2,048LV
    600LV
    600LV

    “LV” - “Likely Voters”.

    Of these 16 polls currently up, 12 of them are trying to determine who is “likely” to vote, and no 2 polls use the same definition.

    Generally “Did you vote in the last 2 elections?”

    • @scarabineEnglish
      1•2 months ago

      Yeah, every time I wind up looking deeply at polls I find more questions than answers. I recognize they’re a snapshot of a segment, not representative of the whole segment but sort of a sampling of it.

      For example, the 3 polls there from Franklin, and the 4 from Morning Consult: the same methodology and around the same sample size, conducted at the same time frame. Each poll with different outcomes from their sample set.

      I also recognize that as long as X% are “undecided”, the poll can’t really show anything other than trend motions. And these polls are actually kind of static. Like if you plot them all out, they don’t seem to have an upper or downward trend trajectory.

      It’s frustratingly ambiguous stuff.