Vantage Data House
app.vantagedatahouse.com

Hopium? This blog is suggesting an incredible margin of victory for Harris.

VDH is the website. They are outright calling respected meta-polls FiveThirtyEight and RCP completely wrong. Their overall argument is that the Senate-race is incredibly favored in the Democrat’s favor.

I don’t know if I necessarily believe that argument. But its still interesting to think about. Discuss?

  • @[email protected]English
    2•2 months ago

    You mention Trump as up in 18-39 and 50-64 but down in “a bunch of other age groups.” How many other age groups are there? 40-49 and 65+ seem like only way to back them up with any significance.

    • @scarabineEnglish
      6•2 months ago

      Oh shoot, sorry, I meant 18-29. The groups are:

      • 18-29 (Harris down 10 from Biden 2020)
      • 30-39 (Harris up 10 from Biden 2020)
      • 40-49 (Harris up 1 from Biden 2020)
      • 50-64 (Trump up 4 from 2020)
      • 65+ (Harris up 10 from Biden 2020)

      It’s worth mentioning that these groups are not equal! 18-29 is usually a very low representation, where 40-49 is pretty big, and 50-64 / 65+ are huge.

      • @[email protected]
        3•2 months ago

        65+ (Harris up 10 from Biden 2020)

        Boomers potentially saving us from Trump was not on my 2024 bingo card (I know that is from a higher base of existing Trump support but still).