That does not involve statistical predictions based on previous elections. As far as I know, only one other convicted felon ran for president- Eugene V. Debs. Considering he was a socialist, his chances were slim.

I’m sure you know that the sample size of two is not really something you can base election predictions on. You can base them on voting patterns every four years. Really, every two.

If predictions based on previous history didn’t work, neither would weather reports.

The big issue here is that you seem to think making predictions based on historical statistics has to always be right or always be wrong, rather than right far more often than wrong.