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A couple of things.
As an American with a Swedish wife, if anything serious happens in the baltic, I think you can safely expect Virginia-class subs to start sprouting like dandelions.
Sweden isn’t in NATO, but neither is New Zealand, and if China started sending boats for unfriendly visits I’m pretty sure we’d tool up and say “What’s all this then?!”
You’re right, New Zealand isn’t in NATO, it’s in the ANZUS treaty, that’s why y’all would tool up.