I see the war on trans people as #3. Even before the rise of the Trump regime, every time there’s a school shooter, the right already immediately started spreading lies about the attacker being trans. Now the open persecution has begun. When you try to erase a group from the law, target their basic ID documents, their healthcare, their very existence? The Trump regime has declared war on the trans population.

You can only push people so far before some of them start building bombs. You can only take so many innocent lives before the reprisal killings start. And I think that’s the goal here, beyond just outright bigotry. Spread lies about a group being prone to acts of violence. Start persecuting that group using every lever of power available. When some members of that group inevitably respond with violence, the broader populace will already be primed to accept that the group is prone to irrational violence. You can then use that as justification for even more draconian acts of repression.

1,2, and 4 will lead to 3, which will then lead to 5.