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Ironically, Trudeau hanging around for a long as he did may have saved Canada. If this election had happened in the middle of last year, the Conservatives would have probably won and combined with Trump, it would have been a disaster. Possibly the smartest/luckiest thing he has ever done.
At the end of the day it all comes down to the role of the dice.
In Canada, the US, and the UK, yeah. In countries with good elections, things are a little more deterministic.
Idk if you’re a nerd, but Brian Klass is a contemporary political scientist who actually challenges this, and yet still affirms a determinist lense. His latest book is on his chaos theory that I think can be helpful navigating our current world.
Here’s his big think interview if you’re interested!
One way to think of this is that we can’t predict the future with what we know of the past because the “rules” are constantly changing. One example is an academic paper that was written that said middle eastern dictatorships were especially stable in comparison to others, but then a year later the Arab Spring occurs. His take is that the author wasn’t wrong- based on all the information of the past it made sense that these dictatorships were not going away anytime soon, but what happened was the world changed making those assumptions moot.
So the idea that European democracies are inherently stable isn’t necessarily a given, and as our world is drastically changing, our tools to gauge the health of a democracy are becoming less and less relevant.
in this case it was the early voter turnout and the special ballots that really lifted it. And we cannot ever forget Bloc. They did a huge push on this one. No one hates Trump quite as much as Quebecois and they showed it 20 fold. Quite a ride watching all this. Especially what with the cyber attacks on the PM during this short campaign was relentless as was the propaganda radios. It honestly should be a case study on how out of control the propaganda was getting on X and facebook.
Trump made Québécois what Canadians themselves couldn’t do, make Québécois more Canadian.
Cannot believe I’m living in an era where Alberta is more separatist than Quebec.
Watching them sing the anthem full-throated during the 4 nations was a sight to behold.
A common threat forces people together.