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It’s not just that we’re stupid. We’re also selfish.

Huge difference between raw intellectual capacity and exercised utility.

You can have a 10 gallon bucket, but it’ll only carry that much water if you fill it.

We think we are smart enough to get away with it.

That’s a bit like the investigation into whether lethal bear attacks are because of their teeth or their claws - probably really interesting, but not critical to the question of avoiding the bear.

I was led to believe it’s both. Global warming causes ice loss which contributes to global warming which causes more ice loss which contributes to global warming which causes more ice loss …

Interesting. I would love to work on that kind of data model, as there is an interesting thing to point out with the movement of the polar vortex:
It dips further south to follow along land mass.

I wonder if the wind currents have an easier time maintaining speed along flat surfaces or if the water being warmer causes pockets of higher pressure further north than usual pushing the vortex to be more unstable looking.

It feels like it makes sense that the current would be much more stable along a surface that is more consistent and thus loss of ice smoothing the surface would cause it to wobble but inertia still remains the same meaning it needs to push down elsewhere where there is less resistance.

So I would lean towards ice loss as a cause of changing polar vortex stability but I kinda gave up that ability to do anything about this or study such things a while ago.

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Yeah I’ve actually lost faith in 100% of folks in 2024 who still think it’s a scam. I used to think it was just boomers, it’s not. Every climate change related post from NASA on their social media accounts is literally full of young people making fun of them for ‘lying to the public’ and how it’s all a hoax. There’s no depth to these people, we truly live in a society full of complete morons who will believe in a conspiracy theory because of a 5 minute badly edited YouTube video, but refuse to trust anything that is widely accepted in the scientific community because of their need to feel important, intelligent, and ‘in’ on something that the rest of the world isn’t in on.

The thing I keep thinking about, and I feel like I’ve never been able to properly communicate, is that the machines our society runs on are built to run in a certain temperature range.

The 2021 texas winter fiasco was a perfect demonstration of what happens when we try to run a society’s machinery outside of it’s expected temperature range. Yes, the ERCOT goofballs were trying to save money by narrowing that expected operating range because “It never gets that cold” and “It never gets that hot”, but my badly articulated point still stands - a system was made to operate in a temperature range outside of it’s capability, and it started to fail. They were minutes away from losing very expensive and hard to replace equipment. What we don’t want is for one of the more competently-run power grids in the world to start to buckle due to temperatures, because the same thing that happened in texas could happen on a larger scale.

And that’s just talking about the power grid. Anything with a heat exchanger in it, including your car and air conditioner and all the refrigeration that is needed to keep everyone fed, is designed to run in a certain temperature range, and will stop working if you run it outside of that range for too long.

But wait, we can just design stuff to run in a wider temperature range! We certainly can. But we would have to redesign everything that moves heat around.

When you stop and actually think about our situation you realise how thin our operating margins are, we are at the mercy of whatever the planet does and our safety is subject to immediate dismissal should the conditions change. Worse of course are the random cosmic whims which could wipe us out instantly at any time e.g. comets, the sun going weird, etc.

The Day After Tomorrow.

Is there any resource for forecasting what will likely occur in a given area? I don’t see how we can stop climate change now, so I want to prepare my family for it.

We should also pour cranberry juice into the ocean.

What, are you saying a website called X where I can easily share both amateur porn, shitpost, and fight with other keyboard warriors isn’t a solid source for factual information? smh what are you talking about

Next you’re going to tell me that drinking diesel fuel is bad for my longevity or something.

Send this to the top, folks

The Xcretion says that less ice “is consistent with” a weaker jet stream, which does not imply a casual relationship. If A causes B and Y, then B is consistent with Y; or, more accurately, we can produce a useful model of the system that includes both less ice and a weaker jet stream, and have it be internally consistent.

Which is the flaw of social media science these past few years. Theories evolve as new data is presented and new hypotheses are formed. The average twitter denizen won’t have that, no sir, and will with glee smack you with an outdated textbook with equal zeal as a Bible basher.

“FACTS DONT FUGGING CHANGE YOU BIGOT” == “THE WORLD IS ONLY 6,000 YEARS OLD SAYS SO IN THE BIBLE”

I’ll start writing that play. We won’t even have to splurge on the stage as the wasteland will provide a natural setting.

-20F? Where?

If this were common, it would increase the Earth’s albedo, reducing warning

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Ice ages typically happen due to very low insolation or the ability of solar energy to reach the surface of our planet. Insolation is a term often used when describing how much energy a solar panel can create.

Right now we have a big problem with too many greenhouse gases, which exacerbate the insolation we already have. It is heating our oceans rapidly, thus causing the break up of ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctica. At some point the oceans won’t be able to absorb the heat we are receiving and air temperatures will begin to rise as well. Equilibrium. Hence Venus by Tuesday.

So maybeish, so there is the possibility that warming of the oceans will cause the large ocean currents to slow/stop. This will reduce the amount of mixing of ocean water. Causing greater salinity and temperature gradients in the oceans relative to latitude. Making the Arctic ocean colder and the tropical ocean warmer. This colder Arctic ocean would lead to lower Arctic temperatures and an increase in ice, increasing the albedo of earth. The higher albedo would reflect more sunlight cooling the planet into an ice age.

Having said all that it is important to note, first if this happens it will be on geologic time scales. So the planet will still get a lot hotter first. Second it is just a hypothesis, we don’t know what is going to happen on a longer scale because this period of warming is unprecedented in earth’s history. Yes it has been hotter and had higher CO2 levels, but not anywhere the speed of chance we have had in the last 100years. So using past trends to predict the current change will be vague at best.

TLDR: it is still going to get a lot hotter before any chance of getting colder.

We are in an ice age, you can tell because there is an ice cap at both poles.

We are in an interglacial period, which if we fixed carbon pollution today would still continue for tens of thousands of years beyond it’s expected end

There used to be a theory that this sort of weather reinforces the northern ice and glaciers and could start glaciation, but that’s not supported by modern models