As the car industry’s largest hybrid pusher, Toyota says it is better positioned to just buy credits to close the EPA gap rather than “waste” money on BEVs, its CEO said.
Carbon credits are an absolute scam but EVs are also not going to get mass adoption and aren’t going to replace ICE cars until used EVs are a thing without needing to replace the battery for the price of a whole car. So I can see why Toyota wouldn’t be too interested in EVs, the tech for them isn’t there for global adoption and is still a niche market.
EVs already attained mass adoption. In Norway almost all new cars are EVs. Several countries are not far behind. Most countries are more suitable for EVs than Norway.
The problem is that replacing the battery in an EV costs as much as a new car which is something you need to do if it’s 10 years old.
Even if 1/3 of new cars sold is an EV that will take decades for any meaningful adoption since new cars are incredibly uncommon and affordable replacemt batteries don’t yet exist.
I don’t mind car makers making EVs but it seems like a pretty reasonable choice from Toyota not to enter that market yet.
You don’t have to replace the battery every 10 years. LiFePo cells can do more than 3000 cycles before going below 85% rated capacity. CATL has been making these cheaply for years.
Toyota has been actively sabotaging EV transitions for decades. Of course they’re against the thing they don’t want.
I can currently find exactly zero used cars with a LiFePo battery here. I looked around more and it doesn’t seem to be even used by any car brands that exist here so I have no way to check how expensive a replacement would be. I’m assuming there’s a reason it’s not used but I’m not going to dig into battery research over a lemmy post.
If those batteries solve all the issues leading to used EVs being feasible then that would be great in about a decade or two if they adobt that right now.
The only reason they are so expensive currently is because the demand is still quite new and the price you are quoting is ferrying the manufacturer who is incentivised to price it in such a way as to pay you towards buying a new car.
Go to an ICE manufacturer and ask for a new drivetrain and they will likely quote you parts and labour price that exceeds the value of the car.
Aftermarket support will continue to improve as the market continues to grow and mature. Give it another decade or so, and battery swaps/refurbishments will become as commonplace as ICE engine gasket replacements, while also being significantly cheaper.
Even as it stands now, ~10yo Teslas seem to have battery health at >80% (maybe due to over-provisioning?) and are sufficient to meet most commuter’s daily needs.
The battery in my car got replaced. For a 82kWh battery it was $11k, like two years ago. And it only keeps getting cheaper. And they come with 200.000 km warranty.
LiFePo4 have like 5 times the lifespan. So they will outlive your car, you can put them in your next car, they will outlive that one too and then you can use them as buffer storage for your house.
11k is more than double of what the average person pays for a car here. The vast majority buy used cars for about 5000 euros on average for a good quality one but you can get a car for even under 1k. Until EVs can hit those prices only a handful of people will buy them in poorer countries.
The only ev I’ve seen powered by LiFePO4 was built by an enthusiast.
… So the short answer is: you can only build one.
LiFePO4 batteries are less energy dense than lithium/cobalt, which is what most use (notable example being every Tesla ever), but some use prismatic cells, IIRC. But Cobalt based cells are generally preferred for weight reduction.
What we need is a battery with the endurance of LiFePO4 and power density that’s as good as, or better than lithium/cobalt cells. Right now that’s the Holy Grail for EVs, and research for such a battery is ongoing. There’s a few that are looking good, but still in fairly early stages of research.
IMO, if that kind of battery can be developed, or another method to power EVs is proven to be effective and safe, then very quickly after that, ICE cars will stop being produced altogether.
Carbon credits are an absolute scam but EVs are also not going to get mass adoption and aren’t going to replace ICE cars until used EVs are a thing without needing to replace the battery for the price of a whole car. So I can see why Toyota wouldn’t be too interested in EVs, the tech for them isn’t there for global adoption and is still a niche market.
EVs already attained mass adoption. In Norway almost all new cars are EVs. Several countries are not far behind. Most countries are more suitable for EVs than Norway.
How are most countries more suitable for EVs than Norway? Norway’s hydro power and smaller size is pretty great for EVs.
The hydro power helps, sure. But Norway is big, cold, and sparsely populated.
Like Canada who doesn’t sell many EVs?
The density of EV drivers in BC in the last 5 years has sharply, noticeably increased.
BC has stupid cheap electricity, it’s a perfect candidate for EVs just like Norway.
It’s true. Definitely part of my equation.
Smaller size???
Are you American?
I’m not sure about Norway but here in Estonia the vast vast majority of cars sold are used. New cars are rarely sold due to the price.
All cars were new cars once. If a majority of new cars are EVs, then it is only a matter of time before most used cars are as well.
It’s not (just) a matter of money. Even in China a third of new vehicles are EVs, and Estonia is much richer than China.
The problem is that replacing the battery in an EV costs as much as a new car which is something you need to do if it’s 10 years old.
Even if 1/3 of new cars sold is an EV that will take decades for any meaningful adoption since new cars are incredibly uncommon and affordable replacemt batteries don’t yet exist.
I don’t mind car makers making EVs but it seems like a pretty reasonable choice from Toyota not to enter that market yet.
You don’t have to replace the battery every 10 years. LiFePo cells can do more than 3000 cycles before going below 85% rated capacity. CATL has been making these cheaply for years.
Toyota has been actively sabotaging EV transitions for decades. Of course they’re against the thing they don’t want.
I can currently find exactly zero used cars with a LiFePo battery here. I looked around more and it doesn’t seem to be even used by any car brands that exist here so I have no way to check how expensive a replacement would be. I’m assuming there’s a reason it’s not used but I’m not going to dig into battery research over a lemmy post.
If those batteries solve all the issues leading to used EVs being feasible then that would be great in about a decade or two if they adobt that right now.
The only reason they are so expensive currently is because the demand is still quite new and the price you are quoting is ferrying the manufacturer who is incentivised to price it in such a way as to pay you towards buying a new car.
Go to an ICE manufacturer and ask for a new drivetrain and they will likely quote you parts and labour price that exceeds the value of the car.
Aftermarket support will continue to improve as the market continues to grow and mature. Give it another decade or so, and battery swaps/refurbishments will become as commonplace as ICE engine gasket replacements, while also being significantly cheaper.
Even as it stands now, ~10yo Teslas seem to have battery health at >80% (maybe due to over-provisioning?) and are sufficient to meet most commuter’s daily needs.
The battery in my car got replaced. For a 82kWh battery it was $11k, like two years ago. And it only keeps getting cheaper. And they come with 200.000 km warranty.
LiFePo4 have like 5 times the lifespan. So they will outlive your car, you can put them in your next car, they will outlive that one too and then you can use them as buffer storage for your house.
11k is more than double of what the average person pays for a car here. The vast majority buy used cars for about 5000 euros on average for a good quality one but you can get a car for even under 1k. Until EVs can hit those prices only a handful of people will buy them in poorer countries.
They will, you can get a Zoe for 6k right now. There just are no 20 year old evs yet.
The cheapest used Zoe I can find in Estonia is 7k and it’s in bad condition all the rest are from 15 - 25k.
25 is what a new one costs. You are doing something wrong.
Auto24.ee is the most popular site for selling used cars here, check it yourself.
Surprisingly, I don’t speak Estonian.
They have a language setting like every single page ever.
What car can you even do this? These days I expect the battery to be proprietary with DRM and discontinued by the time it makes sense to replace.
The manufacturer car replace the battery in any car they make…
Right now?
The only ev I’ve seen powered by LiFePO4 was built by an enthusiast.
… So the short answer is: you can only build one.
LiFePO4 batteries are less energy dense than lithium/cobalt, which is what most use (notable example being every Tesla ever), but some use prismatic cells, IIRC. But Cobalt based cells are generally preferred for weight reduction.
What we need is a battery with the endurance of LiFePO4 and power density that’s as good as, or better than lithium/cobalt cells. Right now that’s the Holy Grail for EVs, and research for such a battery is ongoing. There’s a few that are looking good, but still in fairly early stages of research.
IMO, if that kind of battery can be developed, or another method to power EVs is proven to be effective and safe, then very quickly after that, ICE cars will stop being produced altogether.
Most Chinese cars (BYD, MG, etc), Tesla Model 3 and Y standard range, etc
A car that’s made like a phone can suck my balls
Present them.
EVs shouldn’t ever replace ICE cars, people should be able to buy whichever they like, the government needs to stay out of it.