“I’m the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving," he said in a call to the broader campaign
“I’m the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving," he said in a call to the broader campaign
I mean, this is the kind of messaging we should expect from the office until the exact moment he flips. There isn’t anything really “new” in this BBC article, its mostly a rehash of several other articles and polls that have come out since last Thursday.
I’m still holding out for an announcement this evening/ tomorrow morning, but I am becoming less confident in that. I’m still confident that Biden isn’t going to be the nominee, but he’s creating a significant cost associated with him continuing to run as a lost-cause candidate. We need to move on and regroup, and we’re running out of time to do so.
At this point, Biden needs to basically recover 30 points in the polling to overcome the disadvantage we know he carries going into a general (we have seen how he underperforms his polling on election day; we also know that Trump typically outperforms his polling on election day). A thirty point swing at this point is a statistical impossibility, for those being practical about the matter. I can post the analysis again, but no swing of that magnitude has ever happened this close to election day. Ever. Based on his current polling, Biden has a less than 1% probability of winning, which is to say, basically impossible.
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https://xkcd.com/1122/
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AOC would be electrifying. But you’ve pretty clearly already decided that it’s not possible to win with literally anyone except checks notes Joseph fucking Biden, a candidate that people didn’t even want to vote for last time.
Ah yes. This old tired canard.
Tell me you don’t understand XKCD without telling me you don’t understand XKCD.
Please explain it to me.
So is not replacing him, and the hand wringing around it being a problem is a significant contributor to this mess lasting as long as it has.
The right answer is to go to an open convention and duke it out the way its always been done in the past. At least bring back some semblance of democracy to the Democratic party; you’ll get a SHIT ton of coverage on the matter; it will turn into a real horse race and get people engaged, and then you’ll have a candidate is at least competitive, which Biden isnt.
You shouldnt be scared of replacing Biden. Thats like being scared of pulling over in a car with a flat tire.
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Sure. And I agree. But I’m over it. Any one polling over 45%. I dont care any more. I just want someone who can beat Trump. Its obvious to everyone with eyes that isn’t Biden.
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Well, you and I are.
There are plenty of people here, I suggest a majority, who have deluded themselves into thinking Biden is the only possible path to beating Trump, rather than a guaranteed L.
This cohort is the same cohort that has effectively put us in such a dramatically weak position to beat Trump. They are the real problem and if allowed to go unchecked, will lose this election for us.
Joe Biden will lose. There is no more disastrous option. “Who knows what will happen” is at least in the grouping of “maybe they won’t lose”.
Fuck Nate Silver, some random Internet user figured it all out and didn’t even cite a source