God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.
Then make plans to move out of the country. A close 2024 win for liberalism without solid leads in Congress means nothing but another nailbiter in 2028.
I’m starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don’t want to call it bias, it’s just a blind spot that their model isn’t getting all the input for.
Of course it’s not like anyone else is doing a better job either.
Likely voters are those that have voted before, that’s what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they’re the more accurate people to be polling.
Because new voters are a rounding error smaller than the error bars of the sample size.
Polling is pretty much like the unemployment rate. Any individual reading is meaningless, it’s a multitude of readings over time that give any useful information.
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God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.
I can’t believe it’s this close and I hate that Harris is starting to slip in some states. My heart can’t handle another Trump presidency.
Then make plans to move out of the country. A close 2024 win for liberalism without solid leads in Congress means nothing but another nailbiter in 2028.
Moving out of the country is impossible for 99% of the people who would want to.
Who said anything about legally!
To where? Right wing fascism is on the rise pretty much everywhere.
Holy Kornacki, thank you for putting that together.
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jordanlund is a Lemminal treasure.
I’m starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don’t want to call it bias, it’s just a blind spot that their model isn’t getting all the input for.
Of course it’s not like anyone else is doing a better job either.
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Likely voters are those that have voted before, that’s what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they’re the more accurate people to be polling.
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Because new voters are a rounding error smaller than the error bars of the sample size.
Polling is pretty much like the unemployment rate. Any individual reading is meaningless, it’s a multitude of readings over time that give any useful information.