• @ReallyActuallyFrankenstein
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      502 months ago

      God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.

    • Coelacanth
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      372 months ago

      I can’t believe it’s this close and I hate that Harris is starting to slip in some states. My heart can’t handle another Trump presidency.

    • @[email protected]
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      32 months ago

      I’m starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don’t want to call it bias, it’s just a blind spot that their model isn’t getting all the input for.

      Of course it’s not like anyone else is doing a better job either.

        • @[email protected]
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          32 months ago

          Likely voters are those that have voted before, that’s what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they’re the more accurate people to be polling.

            • @[email protected]
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              62 months ago

              Because new voters are a rounding error smaller than the error bars of the sample size.

              Polling is pretty much like the unemployment rate. Any individual reading is meaningless, it’s a multitude of readings over time that give any useful information.