There isn’t much new in this essay, which makes sense since Silver typically avoids getting too far away from the data and the data right now is “toss-up.” (Electoral college swing states, obviously - Harris will win the popular vote for sure, but who cares what the majority of Americans think, right?)

But I agree with the core thesis - my gut says Trump. My brain says Harris, but it was wrong in 2016. I committed an extreme sampling error and had too much faith in my fellow Americans’ ability to spot and not vote for the obvious conman.

Now that he is a convicted felon, with the accumulated data from his first administration confirming him as a fascist, J6, two impeachments, racist comments, stolen documents, civil fraud, increased evidence of Russian connections, and so on, certainly people haven’t gotten dumber fast enough to keep up with how low he’s pulled the bar? Yes, they most definitely have. And reading anecdotal swing voter info suggests the Trump Show re-runs are still enough to make it close, and he’s also winning the “not being a black woman” race with enough voters to push him over the edge. So shut up brain, you should know better by now.

The bottom line is that I know I’m a pessimist, but I think the last 8 years have merged that Venn diagram with the one for “realist.” I wish America was smarter, better, and more worthy, but it’s probably not. I hope so hard that I’m wrong, and that everyone votes.