In light of the recent election, itās clear that the Democratic Party needs a significant leftward shift to better address the needs and concerns of the American people. The partyās centrist approach is increasingly out of touch, limiting its ability to appeal to a broader base and especially to young voters, who are looking for bold and transformative policies. The fact that young men became a substantial part of the conservative voting bloc should be a wake-up callāitās essential that the Democratic Party broadens its appeal by offering real solutions that resonate with this demographic.
Furthermore, one major missed opportunity was the decision to forgo primaries, which could have brought new energy and ideas to the ticket. Joe Bidenās choice to run for a second term, despite earlier implications of a one-term presidency, may have ultimately contributed to the loss by undermining trust in his promises. Had the party explored alternative candidates in a primary process, the outcome could have been vastly different. It is now imperative for the Working Families Party and the Progressive Caucus to push for a stronger, unapologetically progressive agenda within the Democratic Party. The time for centrist compromises has passed, as evidenced by setbacks dating back to Hillary Clintonās 2016 loss, the persistently low approval ratings for Biden since 2022, and Kamala Harrisās recent campaign, which left many progressives feeling alienated. To regain momentum and genuinely connect with the electorate, a clear departure from moderate politics is essential.
Very few people supported Trump because they thought heād be better on Gaza. Some may have chosen to take a gamble on literally anyone because the Dems are so bad on it, but I doubt that represents a major bloc.
On the other hand, I think it does represent a major factor when it comes to the economy. People are dissatisfied with the status quo and Kamala ran on the status quo. Trump was able to present himself as an alternative, and he was the only other choice.
I honestly think she could have not just mobilized more democrats, but also peeled off more republicans by seperaring from Bidenās economic policies and presenting a further left alternative. Not everyone who votes republican is ideologically committed.
From the sources I referenced earlier though it seems like may have been what broke the core three swing states - Arab voters who backed Biden in 2020 flipped to the GOP in 2024. In absolute terms the margins by which Penn and Michigan turned red are tiny - so itās easy to believe that winning over the Arab vote would have made all the difference in the EC.
That was the one major issue that I wasnāt sure on w.r.t. Harris. It seems to me like she did everything else right except that. Now, she was between a rock and a hard place there - but perhaps she should have counted on the Jewish voting block staying loyal no matter what and then appeased this group by much stronger measures.
Anyways, I saw a Harris win as being the last chance to implement a plan to reform the entire system and give progressives and far-left folks a fair chance, starting with a bunch of new constitutional amendments that would get ratified. But now I fear the exact opposite may happen. It all depends on who takes the House majority.
She did truly so much stuff wrong. The only reason I thought she had any chance at all was because Trump is such a shitty candidate that the bar was very low. She was a bad candidate who never wouldāve won a normal primary, like 2020 showed, and she underperformed downballot candidates all over the place, including Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where democratic senators won or are winning, and which combined make up enough EVs to win (not to mention PA where the senate candidate outperformed Harris but lost by a hair, or NC which elected a democratic governor by a wide margin).
Losing Arab voters was probably enough to cost her the election, but even with them itās doubtful she wouldāve won. There was a 14 point swing among Hispanic voters compared to last election, likely because of the Democrats pivoting right on immigration, and the economy was votersā biggest concern where Harrisā messaging was very weak. Fundamentally, this whole strategy that they tried that you apparently like of dismissing everyoneās concerns except the moderate republicans who were never going to vote democrat is completely self-defeating.
Iām open to the idea that there were other mistakes made, but ideally the list of this should at least be spelled out.
Iāll start. Gaza. Also, https://theintercept.com/2024/11/07/harris-trump-election-immigration-border/
Well, 2020 was not a normal primary, with āelectabilityā being too much of a concern as per https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/electability-eye-beholder-what-hell-do-we-actually-know-about-n1020576
Hmm. This is a good point but I think that there may be another explanation for this. These races wouldnāt have been so tied to Gaza or the immigration/deportation and border issues, so itās possible Harris took a big it from that while downballot, there wasnāt any hit. And the underperformance isnāt that wide - the GOP won most of the battleground Senate races to take majority control over the Senate.
That statement contradicts itself. Either losing them cost her the election - meaning that having them on board would have saved her and lifted her to a win - or they didnāt, because they werenāt enough to win.
This is another puzzling point. Itās true that there was a shift here - see for example https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/01/31/biden-border-immigration-bills-congress-2024/72399226007/ - but while heās to the right of where say Obama was, heās still to the left of orange voldemort. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68428154 and https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-18/in-an-immigration-pivot-biden-announces-plan-for-undocumented-spouses as compared to https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/01/trump-2024-immigration-policy-mass-deportations-stephen-miller/
Talk about cutting off the nose to spite the face.
I mean we know some did, since they told us. Liz Cheney for example voted Harris.
Youād have to list out which concerns got dismissed?
Obviously I donāt agree - dismissing everyoneās concerns does seem like a bad idea - but I also donāt think everyoneās concerns were dismissed. Rather, Harris supported a $15 minimum wage floor - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/harris-voices-support-15-minimum-172336812.html - and there were hopes that this could go even higher once she was elected. She also supported Medicare For All in this election - https://abcnews.go.com/Health/kamala-harris-stands-health-care-issues-vies-democratic/story?id=112159503
Of course one of the most prominent issues was Gaza, but Iād argue that even here the concerns werenāt dismissed, not with Harris saying that she will not be silent on human suffering in Gaza as per https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kamala-harris-tailors-ad-messaging-on-gaza-israel-to-sway-michigan-pennsylvania-voters/ar-AA1toi71 - but this message simply was not strong enough.
Waiting on final numbers, but from the unsourced estimates in the other post, it seems like this is a false narrative. Rather than former Dems voting red like I first thought, it seems previous non-voters turned out red instead. As to whyā¦
I think this is the only point where we agree on. Iām seeing elsewhere, e.g. https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-economy-immigration-11db37c033328a7ef6af71fe0a104604 , that this is exactly why some shifted.
But as VP Harris probably couldnāt have divorced herself from the economy.
So 2020 was not a normal primary, but one held in 2024 wouldnāt have been either. I think we are agreed on this point - had an actual primary taken place, that weakness would have been exposed, and someone other than Harris - who could more easily distance themselves from the most disliked parts and policies of the Biden-Harris administration - could have carried the torch, improving the odds of a win.
Iāve been talking about the problems the whole time.
Kamala was the mediaās preferred candidate and was widely treated as a frontrunner but mismanaged her campaign to the point of dropping out before a single vote was cast. Voters werenāt the problem here, as nobody ever got a chance to vote for her in the first place because of her bungled campaign.
Thereās a difference between taking majority control over the Senate and winning most of the battleground states. Republicans flipped four states: West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana. West Virginia and Montana are both solidly red states, and it wasnāt very realistic that the democrats would ever hold either with the shift towards political polarization. The Republicans really just won two battleground states, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the PA race was extremely close. Democrats, meanwhile, won Michigan and Wisconsin, and are ahead in Arizona and Nevada. Democrats won most of the battleground senate races, itās just that the senate seats up for reelection were favorable to Republicans. Looking just at the senate races, it was a pretty respectable result for the democrats, it could have been a lot worse - this despite the fact that Kamala got the worst result of any Dem candidate since 20 years ago.
Itās not puzzling at all. Many Latinos have conservative social values, but in the past they were willing to look past that because there was a substantive difference between the Republicans and Democrats on the issue, and they could be convinced that Trumpās focus on immigration was racist. When the democrats dropped that and adopted right-wing positions on immigration, that reason disappeared.
The problem is that you have these deep rooted lesser-evilist brainworms that donāt actually reflect reality. Everything would make more sense if you ripped them out and stopped looking at things from that perspective and assuming everyone else sees things that way.
That is literally one person. A person who does not in any way reflect a significant constituancy of voters. What a ridiculous argument.
That statement and a quarter will by you a piece of gum.
She was always very clear on supplying arms to Israel completely unconditionally. Nobody gives a shit about sweet talk, we wanted actual material action. Itās like handing a mass shooter another clip while asking him politely to pretty please stop and saying that you disapprove of what heās doing and by the way thereās more ammo where that came from if heād like to keep going.
The message wasnāt strong enough because it was bullshit.
I disagree. To some extent, sure, sheās be associated with it, but she could have at least tried to distance herself from it. Hell, she couldāve said something like, āLook, the economyās not great, but thatās because we were recovering from COVID. We had to make the best of a bad situation. But going forward, things will be different, before we were merely mitigating the damage, but now, with your support, we can begin building towards a future that will be brighter than ever. We are going to [policy X, Y, and Z].ā Instead the messaging was more along the lines of, āThe economy is great, actually, and anyone who says otherwise is trying to sow discord and get Trump elected.ā
Democrats have this pathological inability to self-criticize, accept fault, or just awknowledge problems, and Kamala was a particularly bad example of this. It alienates people and speaks to a lack of confidence. What harm would there be in distancing herself, at least a little, from Joe Biden? Is it going to hurt Bidenās future career prospects?
Yes, that is one point of agreement.
Thatās why I didnāt mention them. Agreed overall - the point is that having to campaign for a primary in 2024 would have exposed the faults along with putting āelectabilityā back into the picture. Exactly how this happens is less important than it does indeed happen.
I missed this. Conceded, youāre right.
Yeah, the WV loss was basically certain. Although higher hopes were had in Montana, obviously they didnāt pan out.
Yup, I remember this being an issue back in 2018 as well. Seeing that Senate terms are for six years, this makes sense. But that gives hope that 2026 will be more like 2020 with Dems barely retaking the Senate. Though that assumes there are still free and fair elections by then.
Agreed.
Youāll have to explain this. Based on the other speculative posted I referenced earlier, in terms of the popular vote it seems like Harris will have more than Clinton did in 2016 and only be short by a few million compared to Biden. If you look at EC numbers, Harris had more than Clinton, and the 2016 winner and the 2020 winner won by more than 300, while this year the number fell short of that.
Itās definitely a bad&painful result, but I wouldnāt call it the worst.
Ah, that makes sense.
The reason it was puzzling is because I had forgotten. Itās a personal bias (my inner circle of friends includes Latinos with very liberal families, but this obviously is due to a selection bias and doesnāt reflect the grouping in general).
I can give you a longer list if you like, of all the former Republican politicians who have gone on the record for supporting Harris. Itās not ridiculous at all. Itās fair to say it wasnāt enough, but itās more ridiculous to say it was just one person when we know the real number is at least more than an order of magnitude greater.
Weāre in agreement here.
I have nothing to back this up, but I had a feeling that once Harris was elected, actual action would eventually have been taken. She just couldnāt say anything but empty words prior to election day to avoid losing the Jewish bloc - but based on what we now know of the overall vote, it seems like that was a risk she should have taken.
I think the GOP would have had a field day with ābefore we were merely mitigating the damageā (why didnāt you just fix it? maybe because you donāt know how?)
Thatās exactly what Harris tried to do, as per https://www.npr.org/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5055895/harris-is-signaling-her-campaigns-priorities-the-economy-could-be-key-for-voters (fight price gouging, expand child tax credit, encourage more small businesses) and per https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardmcgahey/2024/09/30/harris-opportunity-economyācloses-the-economic-gap-with-trump/ (the opportunity economy).
Youād be right if you said trying to use this was a mistake, but - I feel she was trying to share in the credit for the good numbers on the economy as per https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/10/harris-inflation-solid-economy-00183210
Voters care more about their own personal finances. If things are more expensive for them, why do they care that the economyās numbers look good? Another thing I think a primary would have prevented.
I think at the time the thinking was being too distant from B would cause two problems. First, why didnāt she do anything more as VP? Second, not able to take any credit for the few good things.
No, the number did not fall short of that, itās just that Arizona and Nevada have not been called for Trump yet, but they will be soon. At that point, the electoral map will look exactly the same as 2016 except that Clinton won Nevada, which Kamala is losing. And Clinton won the popular vote while Kamala lost it. So yes, it is pretty objectively a worse result than 2016.
The only thing I was wrong about was that it wasnāt just 20 years. We actually have to go all the way back to 1988 to see a result this bad for the democrats, an election where George H.W. Bush won California.
An order of magnitude greater than 1 is 10. Thatās still completely insignificant, obviously. Individual politicians donāt matter unless they draw in constituencies (and donāt alienate other constituencies), which did not materialize.
This is essentially a conspiracy theory. Itās no different from QAnon people explaining away anything Trump does that they donāt like by saying that he had to say it to appease the deep state and get elected, TRUST THE PLAN. Itās completely baseless cope and every piece of actual evidence clearly contradicts it.
But even if it were true it doesnāt matter in the context of assessing why she lost, because there was no possible way for voters alienated by her public stance to know that she was lying and secretly on their side.
No no no. You cut off major parts of what I said. The only similarity is, āWeāre going to make the economy better going forwardā which every politician ever is going to say.
You do acknowledge the main point afterward though. I think weāre in agreement on it being a mistake for her to not distance herself from Biden and not sufficiently acknowledge peopleās economic problems.
Yep. I think thereās still a tiny disagreement here over whether or not Harris could have put enough distance - but we both agree that a primary would have proven it either way and solved the problem with a different candidate if it wasnāt possible, so thatās perhaps immaterial.
Both Harris and I provided more specific details than that.
Space limits on posting. But actually I agreed on those points and didnāt feel the need to respond to them - Harris never said the economy was really and painfully bad outright and never sought distance from Biden.
Agreed, the latest numbers do suggest that if there was split voting, it was in favor of the Dems downballot and orange voldemort rather than the opposite, like we saw in 2020 for Biden.
I was just pointing out that this did draw in some, but as you said it wasnāt enough.
Oh, thatās right. I spoke too soon - should have waited for the data.
But from your own wikipedia pages, Clinton wont 65,853,514 votes while the estimate at https://lemmy.blahaj.zone/post/18340229 says āKamala around 73 millionā so Harris objectively did better than Clinton on the popular vote in terms of raw numbers.
So worst case 2024 will still be better than 1988 in terms of EC numbers. Anyways, if Iām reading https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/ itās still too soon to call - the reason being that itās mathematically possible for Harris to still win those two (if she won all the remaining votes left to be counted). So still too soon to tell.
So let me give some quotes here to back this up.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/4/harris-says-will-end-gaza-war-in-final-election-appeal-to-arab-americans
https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/kamala-harris-says-two-state-solution-is-the-only-path-after-meeting-with-netanyahu-b2586161.html
Harris didnāt have much in terms of actual action, but her position post-Hamas was still for a two-state solution and to put an end to what was happening in Gaza.
The problem is there was no plan for that - but she only had three months to rush a campaign through. So less āTRUST THE PLANā and more āhope she can figure out a plan once sheās in office.ā
Itās not a conspiracy theory because she did actually say these things, but if youād question if these would end up as broken promises ā¦ it seems that the voters who cared about these things shared your questioning.
Again, it wasnāt secret, but was based on the speeches she gave, along with this bit of protestor inspired impromptu: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/harris-appears-to-agree-with-protester-accusing-israel-of-genocide-what-he-s-talking-about-it-s-real/ar-AA1szCVt
Obviously it wasnāt enough, but, it wasnāt kept as a secret.
Yes, Clinton got fewer total votes in a lower turnout election, but by every other metric the election was less bad than this one was for Harris, whether we look at the EC or votes compared to the other side.
As for Gaza, there is one very simple and straightforward action that Biden could have taken (or still could actually) or that Harris could have said sheāll do: place conditions on arms shipments to Israel (or even just stop them entirely). Refusing to do that is a complete endorsement of Israelās actions. Like I said, itās like saying that you disapprove of a mass shooterās actions while handing him another clip. Words and speeches are completely meaningless unless that is addressed, all she ever said was essentially, āWouldnāt it be nice if they could resolve their differences without fighting? But of course I fully support Israelās right to defend itself and will keep arming them unconditionally.ā There is no indication that she wouldāve been at all willing to take meaningful action.
It used to be the case that politicians would promise to do good things, and then maybe sometimes theyād actually keep their promises. Nowadays they donāt even promise anything and people just convince themselves theyāll do what they want regardless. Like, even if she had said that sheād stop shipments, sure I would support her, but it would not be entirely unreasonable to question whether sheād follow through. But in the case where she couldnāt even say it, the chances of her doing it are basically zero.
Yep, definitely time for someone to look at themselves in the mirror.
Yeah, you canāt actually just rip out brainworms. THatās not how those are treated. This is how theyāre actually dealt with: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/neurocysticercosis#treatment
Likewise, the way forward here would be to patiently educate someone willing.
I think the way Iāve summed things up do reflect reality. I did make a mistake (due to having insufficient data) about Dems flipping red, which Iāve already acknowledged. Actually, Harris is on track to get most of the popular vote that Biden got in 2020, which was one of the highest periods of turnout on record. Itās just that voters who sat out 2016 and even 2020 turned out over the economy this year for the GOP, along with important single issue voters in swing states (Latinos over immigration and Arabs/Muslims over Gaza) switching sides.
More data is needed. Importantly the gerrymandering by the GOP that started in 2010 and was blessed by the Supreme Court makes me think that we canāt look at 2008 or earlier for precedents. And even comparing to 2012 would be hard since Obama had an incumbency advantage when the plan was still new and not fully implemented.
With limited data, Clintonās more progressive (I said more progressive, not actually progressive) platform in 2016 failed to excite voters, and even more progressive ones failed in the primaries.
This is why I am such a fan of RCV - instead of having to battle it out in the primary, RCV would allow Dems to safely run more progressive candidates side by side with more moderate ones, allowing voters to say which ones they prefer the most without worrying about āelectibilityā so much (as this means the less electible candidateās votes would go to the other Dem to boost that Dem instead of assuring a GOP win).
Again, look in the mirror.
As this is subjective, no citation needed. However, Iād argue that her change from her 2020 platform does in fact represent she is capable of reflecting and changing - she changed her 2024 platform to reflect the more āelectibleā platform of Biden that won 2020.
And the result was actually a very close election in the battleground states, as per https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4ve004llxo but as you also pointed out.