I wonder if this helps explains why polling has been getting worse than usual since 2016. (In relation to presidential polling (midterm polling has been historically accurate).

Chart Source, Axios

  • @ReallyActuallyFrankenstein
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    1725 days ago

    Voters across the political spectrum said they’ve lied about their voting: 27% of Democrats acknowledged it, while 24% of Republicans and 20% of independents did so. The survey didn’t ask exactly how, why or to whom they’d lied.

    This is what I was looking for. It’s not reliable data about which direction it may be influencing polling, but if a self-identified “democrat” is lying, presumably it is to conservative family or friends about conservative support (and vice versa). This would mean there is slightly more “shy” democrats than republicans, but with a very large “independent” black box.

  • @[email protected]
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    1425 days ago

    I found out my brother has been a Trumper since 2016, and keeps it secret from his friends, who he knows would not be okay with it. Not so much “shy”, as “knows he’s an asshole, but literally only cares about religion”. He’s just a misogynist, is the reality.

  • @[email protected]
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    925 days ago

    I wonder how many of these were people who voted for Trump in 2016 and now feel shame/embarrassment after seeing the entailing colossal clusterfuck they were partially responsible for.

    • @[email protected]OP
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      1425 days ago

      That’s likely a really low percentage unfortunately.

      I think the estimates are only 2-4% of Trump 2016 voters voted Biden 2020.

      But there definitely is something to the “shy Trump voter” theory.

      • sp3ctr4l
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        1525 days ago

        Shy Trump Voter is an interesting way to phrase CryptoFascist.

        • @[email protected]OP
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          25 days ago

          Shy Trump voter is the main theory about why pollsters consistently underestimate Trump.

          A good part of Trump voters are idiots who brag about it. But there’s a decent chunk who thinks he’s an arse, but are deluded into thinking that he’d be better for immigration/the economy or whatever and vote for him without telling anyone because they are embarrassed.

          • sp3ctr4l
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            25 days ago

            I know.

            I’d be embarrassed to be an out and proud fascist too!

            The Shy Trump Voter theory is basically the theory that a whole lot of Americans are fascists, support fascist policies and leaders, but are self aware enough to realize they’d be socially ostracized for doing so openly, brazenly, enthusiastically.

            I no longer care to coddle, or reframe the confusion or embarrassment or stupidity and ignorance of people who… know what they are doing is wrong, so they lie about what they’re doing.