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I disagree that he is effective in anything other than being not Trudeau and being a contrarian in the American conservative mold. If he was at all a good politician he would not have fumbled this election the way he did. The liberals made some good plays but if PP had spent one minute reading the room instead of playing party over country he might have been PM.
If he manages to hang around until the next one he will probably get in when the left splits again but it won’t be because he’s good at his job it will be because he has a pulse and a name on the ballot under conservative.